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Star Ratings and the NFL Draft

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13 months ago

Looking at a projection of the first round I noticed something that surprised me. 15 players were 3 stars or below when they were recruited, 12 were 4 stars and 5 were 5 stars. This may say there is only a marginal connection between what a kid looks like at 16 or 17 and what they develop into while in college. I'd expect a lot more 5 star recruits. It may say something about how important great position coaching is.
Tom May
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13 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Yeah, that's why rankings can get tricky sometimes, were you looking at Rivals' rankings or Scout's?
Go Blue & Gig Em'!
TAMUWolverine
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13 months ago

Tom May said...
Looking at a projection of the first round I noticed something that surprised me. 15 players were 3 stars or below when they were recruited, 12 were 4 stars and 5 were 5 stars. This may say there is only a marginal connection between what a kid looks like at 16 or 17 and what they develop into while in college. I'd expect a lot more 5 star recruits. It may say something about how important great position coaching is.

The other thing you have to remember is that there are many many more 3 star recruits than there are 4 and 5 star guys. So, percentage wise a 4 or 5 star kid is still more likely to develop into NFL caliber players.
WillyWolverine
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13 months ago

Rivals 2008.
Tom May
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13 months ago

also remember these rankings are for kids under 18 usually males develop alot in that 18-25 range hence the reason for alot of 3 star and below being able to make it to the nfl
bigplayhem
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13 months ago

bigplayhem said...
also remember these rankings are for kids under 18 usually males develop alot in that 18-25 range hence the reason for alot of 3 star and below being able to make it to the nfl

There are something like like 20+ times as many 3 stars as there are 5 stars. So when you think about it, it makes sense that there would be more 3 stars in the draft as opposed to 5 stars.
This is Michigan, fergodsakes.
Never Lose Hoke
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13 months ago

A better way to analyze the data would be to get the % of each 3-Star ..4-Star ..5-Star....so for example if 5 5-Star recruits made it to the NFL out of 10 total ..then that's a 50% success rate
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13 months ago

Your statistics are a testament to how accurately scouts evaluated players out of high school. It shows that an individual 4/5 star athlete is many, many more times likely to go first round than an individual who is a 3 star or lower. Add to that the fact that these projections were made a half decade ago, and it's even more impressive still.
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13 months ago

This is how Rivals' 28 5-stars in the 2006 class fared
1st Round: 8 - 28.6%
2nd Round: 3 - 10.7%
3rd Round: 0 - 0.0%
4th Round: 1 - 3.6%
5th Round: 2 - 7.1%
6th Round: 4 - 14.3%
7th Round: 0 - 0.0
Undrafted FA: 7 - 25.0%
Did not make NFL: 2 - 7.1%
Switched sports: 1 - 3.6%
Overall, 18/28 (64.3%) were drafted and 25/28 (89.3%) made an NFL roster for at least some period of time.
inuyesta
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13 months ago

And the 29 5-stars from 2007
1st Round: 2 - 6.9%
2nd Round: 4 - 13.8%
3rd Round: 5 - 17.2%
4th Round: 2 - 6.9%
5th Round: 0 - 0.0%
6th Round: 2 - 6.9%
7th Round: 0 - 0.0%
Undrafted FA: 5 - 17.2%
Did not make NFL: 1 - 3.4%
Not yet determined: 8 - 27.6%
Not nearly as impressive of a class, obviously, although both of the first rounders (Cam Newton and Eric Berry) were top-5 picks.

This post was edited by inuyesta on 4/26/2012 at 10:38 PM
inuyesta
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13 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Tom May said...
Looking at a projection of the first round I noticed something that surprised me. 15 players were 3 stars or below when they were recruited, 12 were 4 stars and 5 were 5 stars. This may say there is only a marginal connection between what a kid looks like at 16 or 17 and what they develop into while in college. I'd expect a lot more 5 star recruits. It may say something about how important great position coaching is.

It's how you coach em up young man. Know any big ten coach known to coach those 3 stars up?
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13 months ago

D.Wags said...
It's how you coach em up young man. Know any big ten coach known to coach those 3 stars up?

I don't like giving BB any credit... but I guess he deserves it here.
thevictor_11
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13 months ago

D.Wags said...
It's how you coach em up young man. Know any big ten coach known to coach those 3 stars up?

Yep. He coaches at Iowa.
WillyWolverine
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13 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

thevictor_11 said...
I don't like giving BB any credit... but I guess he deserves it here.

Yeah , he's solid. I shake when I think of any if those champion coaches with 4 stars and above.
DWags
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13 months ago

D.Wags said...
Yeah , he's solid. I shake when I think of any if those champion coaches with 4 stars and above.

Pray it's not Parkinson's.
thevictor_11
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13 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

thevictor_11 said...
Pray it's not Parkinson's.

Ok, you get a plus 1. That made me laugh.
DWags
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