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Reasons for Optimism in 2012

  • Now that Michigan has won 11 games and a big bowl game, expectations for next year seem to be that UM will keep winning. (Wonder what the abberation of the RR years will look like in a couple years?)

    While any Spartan fan will tell you that MSU is a better team this season than UM (despite being ranked lower) and that Georgia was better than Virginia Tech (despite being ranked lower.... in other words, all 4 teams are ranked wrong....how self-serving...), I think that attitude is borne out of fear for Michigan shaking off the Rich Rod era.

    These are just some reasons for concern for other fans and hope for UM fans for next year:

    1. Hoke and his system will be in place a second year. This is HUGE. Most great coaches see an uptick in Year 2 once their "system" sets in. (See Saban, Tressel, Carroll, etc.) Hoke may not have that far up to go, but maybe the wins will look better even with the same record?

    2. Obviously the great recruits have a chance to immediately add depth and help out. This puts Michigan in a better position than most teams on its schedule looking to add depth.

    3. Denard's senior year and second year with Borges. Leadership and ability will be at an all time high.

    4. Defensive line is the biggest question mark because of departing players...but it is also the area in which the Michigan coaches SPECIALIZE. Between 3 DL coaches, they can coach up any able body. Just the progress this year's line made throughout the course of the season has been impressive.

    5. The road to a big ten title seems open. Two of the toughest games are out of conference. As MSU fans were releived to find out this year, losing those games can still allow you to claim a better record against conference foes. In conference, they have MSU at home. Michigan won all its home games this year under Hoke and MSU still hasn't won a road game against a team that proved to be any good at the end of the year (i.e. ranked). The games at Nebraska and OSU will be tough, but neither team looks better than UM at this point. So, they can split those two road games and still win/make the B10 champ game.

    6. Building confidence. We all saw how confidence and faith affected players on this year's team. Gibbons was the same person as last year, but a much better player. No Rich Rod fuming, just Hoke talking about the ladies. The same could probably be said for many other players. The coaches no longer have to convince the team they should believe that are back to fighting for the B10 championship....this year proved that to the players. Building starts from there.

    This post was edited by Peterklima on 1/5/2012 at 12:33 PM

    Peterklima ●

  • Pete...What kind of records do you predict for MSU and UM next year?

    NigelUno

  • Just to play devil's advocate, I see several concerns going into next year. I'm not saying they can't be resolved favorably, and considering how much progress the coaches made in year 1 it's a good bet that most of them will, but here is my list (no order):

    1. Secondary. We were carved up by ND, Ohio and more or less VT. Countess is gonna be good, but IMO we just don't have elite talent in the secondary beyond him. Hopefully, between some of the players we redshirted this year and the freshmen coming in, we will continue to make incremental progress (status quo is unacceptable).

    2. OL/DL. I think we lose 5 starters between the two lines, including our three best linemen - Molk, Martin and VanBergen - and that doesn't include others in the two deep. Those are very big shoes to fill and I'm extremely thankful that our DC and HC are both former DL coaches. This is going to be a major project in the offseason and in fall camp.

    3. WR. Even before the recent Stonum news, the WR situation was thin. We might actually have the best total group of slot receivers in the country, but no true elite wideouts (Stonum possibly being the one exception, depending on what happens there). Someone needs to step up. Arnett would have been a huge pick-up. So would someone like Stefon Diggs, though that ship seems to have sailed too. Unless someone steps up big-time, it looks like another year our opponents will be able to stack the box and play man coverage a good part of the time. Here's to hoping someone steps up cheers.

    Sorry, this is not intended to be a negative post. I didn't go through all of the positives, and there are more of those than negatives, but I just have been thinking about these "holes" in our line-up going into the offseason and am hoping someone can tell me I am way off on some or all of these. This is one time I would love to be convinced I am simply wrong.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by WingedHelmet on 1/5/2012 at 1:47 PM

    WingedHelmet

  • WingedHelmet said...

    1. Secondary. We were carved up by ND, Ohio and more or less VT. Countess is gonna be good, but IMO we just don't have elite talent in the secondary beyond him. Hopefully, between some of the players we redshirted this year and the freshmen coming in, we will continue to make incremental progress (status quo is unacceptable).

    I'm not too concerned about the secondary going into next season. You are definitely correct in pointing those things out, but the way I see it :

    - ND was the 2nd game of the year, and it was obvious some of the players still had no clue where they were supposed to be. Carvin Johnson had started the first game and looked bad, Marvin started ND and didn't play well, Troy was on one ankle trying to play CB, and JT Floyd was in single coverage against Michael Floyd all game getting abused.

    - Kovacs, Floyd, Countess, and Avery will all be improved next year and played a lot to finish this season. That gives us a solid SS, CB, CB, and Nickel combination.
    - At FS it's a question mark, but Thomas Gordon still looked better than Woolfolk a lot of the time, so it won't be a downgrade. If Jarrod Wilson, Furman, or even Marvin Robinson can provide any sort of competition for the spot, it could also be an upgrade overall from this year.
    - Raymon Taylor and Delonte Hollowell both looked like fierce competitors this season, Hollowell constantly in on special teams plays and Taylor seeing time as well. I think they both at least push the rest of the guys to get better by competing.

    What I saw in the VaTech game was that we had to rely on blitzing to try to get any pressure on Logan Thomas, which left guys open and he found them quickly. If we can get any form of pass rush out of Roh, Black, Clark, Ojemudia, or whoever else is at the DE spot, it will help our pass defense next year be a ton better.

    Dizzo

  • It's not an easy thing by any stretch of the imagination, but IF our lines come together we could be very very good (11-2) next year. If our lines don't do that well, then we'll probably struggle (8-4ish).

    For the OL, the big question is our depth. Our starters will be solid and we can count on them, but if they get hurt problems will arise unless the backups can be serviceable.
    LT: Taylor Lewan (RS JR - 6'8 300) --- Erik Gunderson (RS JR - 6'8 310)
    LG: Patrick Omameh (RS SR- 6'4 300) --- Chris Bryant (RS FR - 6'4 330)
    C: Rocko Khoury (RS SR - 6'4 290) --- Jack Miller (RS FR - 6'4 270)
    RG: Ricky Barnum (RS SR - 6'3 290) --- Elliot Mealer (RS SR - 6'5 310)
    RT: Mike Schofield (RS JR - 6'7 300) --- Graham Glasgow (RS FR - 6'6 310)
    Add in the freshmen who won't redshirt (Kyle Kalis, maybe Ben Braden, and IF we get Josh Garnett) and that's not really too bad. I'm counting on two very promising walkons in Gunderson and Glasgow, but they've impressed the coaches. Again, our OT depth is shitty because we'll either count on walkons or true freshmen, but Lewan and Schofield are very reliable.

    As for the DL, this is another issue. The depth isn't that bad, but we don't have the reliable proven starters. SDE is the biggest question mark to start off, as we have arguably our three best returning pass rushers (Roh, Black, and Clark) all at WDE. Hopefully one can move and be serviceable at WDE.
    WDE: Jibreel Black (JR - 6'2 260) --- Frank Clark (SO - 6'2 230)
    DT: Quintin Washington (RS JR - 6'4 300) --- RIchard Ash (RS SO - 6'3 300)
    NT: William Campbell (SR 6'5 320) --- Ondre Pipkins (FR - 6'3 330)
    SDE: Craig Roh (SR - 6'5 270) --- Nathan Brink (RS JR 6'5 260)

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    Ducksworth ●

  • NigelUno said...

    Pete...What kind of records do you predict for MSU and UM next year?

    Well, I predicted they would both would go 7-5 this year and that MSU would beat UM because the game was in East Lansing. I think I overestimated the B10, but at least I was right about them being "even" and MSU winning the head-to-head because of home field (although I did not predict the "trash tornado" there).

    I have not looked at MSU's schedule, but I am optimistic about UM's schedule (in conference that is). And, I won't over estimate the B10 this year. PSU is falling apart. OSU is switching systems and coaches. Wisco is losing a lot (players and coaches) without a big transfer to help. Those are 3 big teams that will have some sturggles next year.

    So, I think UM and MSU have the "in road" to very good records. I think the game in Ann Arbor will decide the division (and likely the B10 winner). A winner take all battle, but since UM is not going to crumble like under RR and because MSU still has trouble with away games against good teams (with a new QB too).....this year I predict Michigan to win that game.

    I'll probably play the schedule W/L prediction game sometime in June when my Jones are in full effect.)

    How about you?

    Peterklima ●

  • Ducksworth said...

    It's not an easy thing by any stretch of the imagination, but IF our lines come together we could be very very good (11-2) next year. If our lines don't do that well, then we'll probably struggle (8-4ish).

    For the OL, the big question is our depth. Our starters will be solid and we can count on them, but if they get hurt problems will arise unless the backups can be serviceable. LT: Taylor Lewan (RS JR - 6'8 300) --- Erik Gunderson (RS JR - 6'8 310) LG: Patrick Omameh (RS SR- 6'4 300) --- Chris Bryant (RS FR - 6'4 330) C: Rocko Khoury (RS SR - 6'4 290) --- Jack Miller (RS FR - 6'4 270) RG: Ricky Barnum (RS SR - 6'3 290) --- Elliot Mealer (RS SR - 6'5 310) RT: Mike Schofield (RS JR - 6'7 300) --- Graham Glasgow (RS FR - 6'6 310) Add in the freshmen who won't redshirt (Kyle Kalis, maybe Ben Braden, and IF we get Josh Garnett) and that's not really too bad. I'm counting on two very promising walkons in Gunderson and Glasgow, but they've impressed the coaches. Again, our OT depth is shitty because we'll either count on walkons or true freshmen, but Lewan and Schofield are very reliable.

    As for the DL, this is another issue. The depth isn't that bad, but we don't have the reliable proven starters. SDE is the biggest question mark to start off, as we have arguably our three best returning pass rushers (Roh, Black, and Clark) all at WDE. Hopefully one can move and be serviceable at WDE. WDE: Jibreel Black (JR - 6'2 260) --- Frank Clark (SO - 6'2 230) DT: Quintin Washington (RS JR - 6'4 300) --- RIchard Ash (RS SO - 6'3 300) NT: William Campbell (SR 6'5 320) --- Ondre Pipkins (FR - 6'3 330) SDE: Craig Roh (SR - 6'5 270) --- Nathan Brink (RS JR 6'5 260)

    I think Wormley is going to get a serious look at SDE. I've seen reports that he's as big as 6'7" 270 which would make him a much more enticing option physically than probably any other player at that position. I think it's possible that we'll see a number of true freshman get reps on the line for both sides of the ball.

    jimtaco

  • jimtaco said...

    I think Wormley is going to get a serious look at SDE. I've seen reports that he's as big as 6'7" 270 which would make him a much more enticing option physically than probably any other player at that position. I think it's possible that we'll see a number of true freshman get reps on the line for both sides of the ball.

    I agree. If reports of Wormley's height are accurate, it sounds like he won't be able to move inside on the DL. If he comes in in shape and makes an impact, he'll definitely get a shot.

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    Ducksworth ●

  • Peterklima said...

    How about you?

    Not Nigel but I like Ducks prediction. 12-1 - 8-4 depending on a few things. Bama, @ND, MSU, @Neb, @OSU are tough games. Neb and OSU should be wins but big ten road wins are tough to come by and as seen in the last game against OSU the team can always play up in a game that big at the end of the year. If I had to put money on it Id go with L to bama and a L in one of the other 4 games so a 2 loss regular season.

    swizbeatz

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