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Duplic8tor said...
The problem is we are giving up about 100 yards more per game to the pass. We are stopping the RUN with more efficiency than last year. I know there are a lot of trolling threads on both our boards, but I sincerely think this doesn't bode well for um come time for The Game. My reasoning is that if we can stunt your running game, it will force Denard to throw, which is what we want. His propensity to make poor decisions and throw interceptions is well-documented. On the flip side, Braxton Miller is not a stellar passer either, although I believe he is a better passer. Having said that, our biggest problem is we are playing a soft defense rather than an attacking defense. Meyer will force that to change by the end of the year. We've seen it change at times already this year, but nothing consistently. That comes down to our DC and coaching. The bottom line is Fickell isn't sure what to do with the talent we have on the Defense. We all know one thing holds true: BOTH teams will show up on 11/24 at noon. BOTH teams will be at their best. All bets are off. Rankings will mean nothing. I expect this game to be a repeat of the 2006 shootout at the Horseshoe. I won't predict a winner here, because we all know who we think will win. um fans = um. Ohio State fans = Ohio State. But, I think the score will be about 38-38 late in the 4th quarter. The difference in the game will be WHOEVER THROWS MORE INT'S will lose. Could be Braxton... could be Denard. But both defenses will plan to take away the run. If that happens, the team that passes better wins. AND, if one team is able to run on the other, game over. We held MSU to 34 yards rushing. Now, I don't think that will be the case especially with Denard in the backfield, but I don't see him rushing for 200 yards either. I am confident we can slow down your running game. But it depends on which Denard shows up on 11/24. If it is the Denard that can beat you with the pass (at times he's looked great)... um wins. If he shows up as the Arm-Punt Robinson, Ohio State wins. That's my best assessment as things stand right now. I DO hope we are BOTH at full strength for The Game.
Consider this:
Passing: (rank) OSU-189 ypg (103) UM-186 ypg (107) verdict: negligible with an asterisk (*)
Rushing: OSU-264 ypg (8) UM-232 ypg (16) verdict: worth +3 point OSU
Pts. For: OSU-40.4 ppg (20) UM-33.8 ppg (37) verdict: worth +3 point OSU
Pts. Against: OSU-24.6 ppg (53) UM-17.5 ppg (23) verdict: worth +7 points UM
Sacks OSU-16 (8) UM-8 ppg (62) verdict: worth +1 turnover to OSU
Rushing Defense OSU-123 ypg UM-148 ypg negligible
Passing Defense OSU-278 ypg UM-134 ypg +10 with an asterisk to UM (*)
Home Game = OSU +3
The asterisk is dependent upon which Denard shows up. IF Denard passes well in The Game, this is how I believe the game will end: Michigan by 7 (45-38 or 38-31). If not, Ohio State by 3 (41-38 or 38-35).
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Norbit said...
Because UM had such a hard time running the ball against Ohio last season. So clearly this post is based in reality and not wishful thinking.
And just to make my point, Denard threw zero INTs last year. I'm saying, if he does that again, you win. You won't run for 277 again this year, IMO.
HOWEVER...
Let's assume YOU think UM will rush for another 277 yards: Using my analysis, if Denard throws three INTs... Ohio State wins. Are you really going to deny that would be the outcome if he throws several INTs - even if you run for the SAME yardage as last year? You only won by 6 points AT HOME to a team that dropped the winning TD 3 times in the EZ.. ?? Come on.
The Holy Trinity... as I see it.
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Duplic8tor said...
And just to make my point, Denard threw zero INTs last year. I'm saying, if he does that again, you win. You won't run for 277 again this year, IMO.
HOWEVER...
Let's assume YOU think UM will rush for another 277 yards: Using my analysis, if Denard throws three INTs... Ohio State wins. Are you really going to deny that would be the outcome if he throws several INTs - even if you run for the SAME yardage as last year? You only won by 6 points AT HOME to a team that dropped the winning TD 3 times in the EZ.. ?? Come on.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 10/18/2012 at 1:18 PM
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Norbit said...
Go re-watch the game. UM dominated the LOS on both sides of the ball. What's changed? Enlighten me.
Ohio's D is what it is at this point. Maybe teams are running less because they can chuck the ball all over the yard? There's a novel idea. Denard can throw, just not very well against good Defenses that force him to. Based on last years game, and Ohio's D this season, there's no reason to believe ya'll can put him in that position.
I'm not in the camp that UM is going to stroll into Columbus and roll Ohio. It's going to be tough. We haven't won there since 2000.
Let's see how the MSU game goes and I'll reevaluate.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Duplic8tor on 10/18/2012 at 12:00 PM
The Holy Trinity... as I see it.
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Duplic8tor said...
And yet we lost by only 6 at your house. And we turned over the ball once.
Total yards: OSU - 372 UM - 444
Total Domination? Really?
That's a difference of 72 yards. Take our turnover away and we probably have more yardage than UM. Tat isn't total domination of the LOS. not at all.
"Those Who Stay...Will be Champions"
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Moon said...
It's obvious you're worried about your 'D'...I would be too. If your 'D' does not get better, real quick....then yes, we will embarrass you on your own field. Last year's game has nothing to do with this year's game. But from what I saw last year....your skilled players played well and racked up some yards, but our D Line and O Line overpowered yours most of the game. My prediction for this year....is that OSU will move the ball pretty decently but will have to settle for field goals. Our offense will score TD's on your D and that will be the difference. Somewhere around the neighborhood of UM 42 OSU 23
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Norbit said...
First off we won by 10. Second, I never said we dominated the game, we dominated the LOS. This is undeniable regardless if you have selected amnesia and choose to pretend it didn't happen. We single man blocked Hankins all game long. Enough said.
Now, moving forward, which D is likely to have a repeat performance. The one coached by Mattison or Fickle?
My reasoning is based on things that have happened. Yours is contrived from hope.
This post was edited by Duplic8tor on 10/18/2012 at 1:35 PM
The Holy Trinity... as I see it.
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Duplic8tor said...
I think you are fantasizing last year's performance (UM) to be far more than it was. You didn't "dominate" anything, regardless if it took no one to block Hankins. Dominating the LOS would suggest we couldn't move the ball, which was certainly not the case. DOMINATING the LOS would suggest you scored at will, which was certainly not the case. You are dreaming.
WillyWolverine
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WillyWolverine said...
We scored over 40 points and had over 250 yards rushing. We dominated the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of things. This thread is about your defense. Based on what i have seen this year there is no reason to believe we won't dominate your defensive line again.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Duplic8tor on 10/18/2012 at 1:43 PM
The Holy Trinity... as I see it.
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Duplic8tor said...
You scored ... OVER .... 40 points? The SCORE was 40-34. What am I missing? Also, at what point did I say our defense wouldn't give up yards or points? I said we would ikely give up LESS rushing yards than last year (277) and more passing yards than last year. The equalizer is whether Denard throws INTs or not. But read (into it) whatever you want.
And, for "DOMINATING" either side of the LOS, to have won by only 6 points... WOW. Wishful thinking for SURE.
Just sayin'
Settle down. Sorry man but when you give up 40 points and 277 yards rushing you were dominated on that side of the ball. It's just the way it is. I didn't say our D dominated your offense on the line of scrimmage. So I don't know why you are getting so bothered by my post. Your D last year was dominated. That's just a fact. WillyWolverine
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Duplic8tor said...
For someone the remembers all the details, the score was 40-34. That is 6 (SIX) points. Not ten.
What's more, you are fantasizing about last year's performance (UM) imagining it to be far more than it was. You didn't "dominate" anything, regardless if it took no one to block Hankins. Dominating the LOS would suggest we couldn't move the ball, which was certainly not the case. DOMINATING the LOS would suggest you scored at will, which was certainly not the case. You are dreaming.
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Norbit said...
Fitz crossed the goal line. Ten points.
Your running game was shut down, minus Miller improvisation, our running game did whatever it wanted. All you need to know is on the last drive, when Ohio had to stop us, we ran it right down your throat. UM owned the LOS. You aren't doing yourself any favors here by acting like that didn't happen, because it did.
Ya'll scored through the air and on broken plays. It was a hard fought game and Ohio brought it, doesn't change the fact that UM handled them in the trenches. Miller is a special talent and will get his regardless.
Remind me again what Herron's stat line for the game was? Because you better believe Ohio wanted to pound the rock coming into that game. They could not.
Boom Herron: 16 car, 37 yds*, 2.5 ypc (long = 7 yds), 1 TD
* Braxton Miller also ran for 100 yds, but that only lifted OSU's total to 137. Not exactly something to crow about. They kept the game close on a handful of long passing plays. Our #3 ranked passing D will make certain that doesn't happen again this year.
This post was edited by MrWoodson on 10/18/2012 at 4:07 PM
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Duplic8tor said...
And yet we lost by only 6 at your house. And we turned over the ball once.
Total yards: OSU - 372 UM - 444
Total Domination? Really?
That's a difference of 72 yards. Take our turnover away and we probably have more yardage than UM. Tat isn't total domination of the LOS. not at all.
This post was edited by wingerine66 on 10/18/2012 at 4:27 PM
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Duplic8tor said...
And yet we lost by only 6 at your house. And we turned over the ball once.
Total yards: OSU - 372 UM - 444
Total Domination? Really?
That's a difference of 72 yards. Take our turnover away and we probably have more yardage than UM. Tat isn't total domination of the LOS. not at all.
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Ohio's defense ... lol