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Michigan Perspective

  • Norbit said...

    I think Bama wore down a bit towards the end of the season. How many losses would ND have playing an SEC schedule... 2 or 3? Saban is going to have over a month to gameplan and his team will be fresh. It's game over. I want to see ND do well but realistically they are going to be over matched. Bama is a dynasty and ND is just another casualty.

    ND would probably have 5 loses if playing in the SEC....for various reasons

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    Awink2

  • As a Bama fan I appreciate all of your opinions on both AL and ND...I would hope the Tide and Wolverines could play one another more often in the future...similar to what we use to play with Penn State. Both fan bases MO have a genuine respect for the traditions of both schools and it would be great to do a home and home...get after Urban Meyer next year and make his A$$ retire yet again!

    This post was edited by Tdown01 on 12/3/2012 at 9:01 AM

    Tdown01 ●

  • I think Alabama wins, but it will be closer than what a lot of you are making it out to be. Their defense is outstanding. Basically copy and paste everyone's responses and they would fit right in with every other prediction thread about Notre Dame vs. a good opponent (Oklahoma with can't keep up comments, Stanford with the run/oline comments, USC with passing game comments, etc.). Plus, Notre Dame averaged 27 points per game, they aren't atrocious on offense.

    I think Alabama is better than those teams and will likely win, but it's not a shoo-in like many are making it out to be.

    hardware_sushi

  • I'm in the same boat as hardware, but my mindset just says ND isn't on the same level as Ala. Granted I hate ND and that could sway my feelings a little bit with this game, but they have beaten some very good teams. Guess I just have to give credit where credit is due, so say what we will about luck or skill, in the end of the day a W is a W and they don't have any L's.

    My heart is saying blowout but my mind is saying a close game, although still pulled off by Ala. I guess I'm on the fence with this one but would love to see ND get curb stomped for their first L of the season.

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    BlueSCMonkey

  • 45-7 Bama it will be over midway through the second quarter. ND had problems with Pitt, Stanford, and us in South Bend. Alabama is much better then all of these teams and ND has to play them at a neutral (road) site, not good for the Irish IMO.

    Amazinglyblue78

  • Awink2 said...

    ND would probably have 5 loses if playing in the SEC....for various reasons

    I think this is pretty extreme hyperbole. I mean, I wouldn't bet on ND running the table in the SEC, but I wouldn't bet on ND running the table vs the schedule they actually played either. And it's not like ND got to #1 by playing cupcakes...they didn't always look impressive winning, but they beat us, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC...along with 4 other bowl-eligible teams. That's about as good a schedule as anyone played this year.

    Anyway, just to introduce some numbers into this discussion, I ran ND through Bama's schedule on Massey, and there wasn't a single game in which ND wasn't favored. Average chance of winning a random game on the schedule was 82.1%, win 10.6 games out of 13 on average, 7.6% chance of going undefeated, only 2.6% chance of going 7-5 or worse. Compare this about what Massey thinks about the schedule ND actually played: Massey favors them in 11/12 games, gives an 84.1% chance of winning a random game, ND wins 10.1 out of 12 games on average, has a 12.5% chance of going undefeated, and only a 3.03% chance of going 7-5 or worse. Pretty much the same.

    Maybe there are specific matchup problems posed by Bama's schedule that Massey can't account for, but I think it's far from "probable" that they lose 5 games in a SEC schedule. Remember that the SEC is not a deep league; it's very good at the top, but its bottom is just as bad as anyone else's bottom. I think a top team would have to run into some horrific scheduling variance to lose 5 games in league play.

    edit: but yeah, as everyone else says, ND will get wrecked in the championship game.

    This post was edited by inuyesta on 12/3/2012 at 10:26 AM

    inuyesta

  • Amazinglyblue78 said...

    45-7 Bama it will be over midway through the second quarter. ND had problems with Pitt, Stanford, and us in South Bend. Alabama is much better then all of these teams and ND has to play them at a neutral (road) site, not good for the Irish IMO.

    The Pitt game is a classic trap game which they walked away with a W after basically dismantling Okla. Stanford has to be one of the most underrated teams in the top 10 who lost their trap game against Wash after beating then #2 USC. They aren't flashy but play solid D and break your will by running the ball for 4 quarters.

    Also, according the an earlier post regarding SoS, ND finished 13 and Ala 32...

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    BlueSCMonkey

  • inuyesta said...

    Maybe there are specific matchup problems posed by Bama's schedule that Massey can't account for, but I think it's far from "probable" that they lose 5 games in a SEC schedule. Remember that the SEC is not a deep league; it's very good at the top, but its bottom is just as bad as anyone else's bottom. I think a top team would have to run into some horrific scheduling variance to lose 5 games in league play.

    This....

    The SEC has very good teams at the top, but after that it gets very average like any other conference. Down years for Ark, Auburn, Tenn, Miss St (who people thought were good until they actually played a team) made it almost a cakewalk for Ala until they faced LSU. Not sure why other conferences get looked down upon so heavily with down years when it's only a couple teams that carry the SEC, just like other conferences.

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    BlueSCMonkey

  • ROLL TIDE!!!

    I'm sure I'm going to get DV'ed for this, but I respect Bama 100x more than ND. I've got no respect for Kelly. To me...a hot headed jerk that will be the first to yank a player for making a mistake. Everything that goes wrong in a ND game is everyone's fault except for Kelly (in his eyes). Brian Kelly and Bo Pelini have got to easily be the biggest boneheads coaching college football today.

    Say what you want about Saban, but I think the guy has more class in his little toe than Kelly.

    As far as the NC Game outcome...ND is in this NC due to piss poor officiating (see Stanford TD and see pass interference call against Pitt). ND beat a mediocre Michigan team due to Michigan TOs...that is it. The only thing you can say about Bama is Georgia almost won had they spiked the ball and not ran out of time...even then...that may have bought them another play or two. Come on....does anyone really think that ND is #1? HAHAHA! Does anyone really think ND is that good? I don't see it AT ALL!

    ND - 3
    Alabama - 37

    This post was edited by ahoyfrmmi on 12/3/2012 at 2:47 PM

    ahoyfrmmi

  • inuyesta said...

    I think this is pretty extreme hyperbole. I mean, I wouldn't bet on ND running the table in the SEC, but I wouldn't bet on ND running the table vs the schedule they actually played either. And it's not like ND got to #1 by playing cupcakes...they didn't always look impressive winning, but they beat us, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC...along with 4 other bowl-eligible teams. That's about as good a schedule as anyone played this year.

    Anyway, just to introduce some numbers into this discussion, I ran ND through Bama's schedule on Massey, and there wasn't a single game in which ND wasn't favored. Average chance of winning a random game on the schedule was 82.1%, win 10.6 games out of 13 on average, 7.6% chance of going undefeated, only 2.6% chance of going 7-5 or worse. Compare this about what Massey thinks about the schedule ND actually played: Massey favors them in 11/12 games, gives an 84.1% chance of winning a random game, ND wins 10.1 out of 12 games on average, has a 12.5% chance of going undefeated, and only a 3.03% chance of going 7-5 or worse. Pretty much the same.

    Maybe there are specific matchup problems posed by Bama's schedule that Massey can't account for, but I think it's far from "probable" that they lose 5 games in a SEC schedule. Remember that the SEC is not a deep league; it's very good at the top, but its bottom is just as bad as anyone else's bottom. I think a top team would have to run into some horrific scheduling variance to lose 5 games in league play.

    edit: but yeah, as everyone else says, ND will get wrecked in the championship game.

    Yep....its pretty extreme to say ND would lose to Bama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, A&M or South Carolina. I guarantee you things are not as fortuitous for them playing in the SEC where they get lucky plays, fortunate play calling by the refs etc...

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    Awink2

  • Awink2 said...

    Yep....its pretty extreme to say ND would lose to Bama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, A&M or South Carolina. I guarantee you things are not as fortuitous for them playing in the SEC where they get lucky plays, fortunate play calling by the refs etc...

    I can easily imagine to them losing to any of those teams. But you said they'd lose 5 games against an SEC schedule, and no one in the SEC played all those teams. Realistically, they'd play 2 or 3 of those teams and pick up 1 or 2 losses.

    inuyesta

  • Nice discussion guys. I do not underestimate Notre Dame just feel that if Alabama can get healthy (specifically B. Jones, J. Williams, B. Ivory and other assorted bumps and bruises) I like our chances. Agree with an earlier poster that said Alabama got fatigued at the end of the year. I think some, not on this thread just in general, underestimate the grind of getting everyone's best shot and holding on to the number one spot. We are an incredibly young team this year with only nine scholarship seniors (which included two walk on, special teams players who were awarded scholarships at the beginning of the year) so it can be difficult playing week in and week out with a target on your back. I think it is a tremendous credit to Coach Saban and the staff that Alabama was able to accomplish what it did with our youth.

    Should be a great game and I really appreciate the posts and perspective.

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    BooAU

  • ahoyfrmmi said...

    ROLL TIDE!!!

    I'm sure I'm going to get DV'ed for this, but I respect Bama 100x more than ND. I've got no respect for Kelly. To me...a hot headed jerk that will be the first to yank a player for making a mistake. Everything that goes wrong in a ND game is everyone's fault except for Kelly (in his eyes). Brian Kelly and Bo Pelini have got to easily be the biggest boneheads coaching college football today.

    Say what you want about Saban, but I think the guy has more class in his little toe than Kelly.

    As far as the NC Game outcome...ND is in this NC due to piss poor officiating (see Stanford TD and see pass interference call against Pitt). ND beat a mediocre Michigan team due to Michigan TOs...that is it. The only thing you can say about Bama is Georgia almost won had they spiked the ball and not ran out of time...even then...that may have bought them another play or two. Come on....does anyone really think that ND is #1? HAHAHA! Does anyone really think ND is that good? I don't see it AT ALL!

    ND - 3 Alabama - 37

    Not to break your bubble, but OSU would be in the same situation as ND. Getting their censored kicked all over the field by a healthy, disciplined, very talented Alabama team. You guys might score a few more points, but you most likely allow quite a few more as well.

    Amazinglyblue78

  • Amazinglyblue78 said...

    Not to break your bubble, but OSU would be in the same situation as ND. Getting their kicked all over the field by a healthy, disciplined, very talented Alabama team. You guys might score a few more points, but you most likely allow quite a few more as well.

    I agree. OSU would be crushed as well.

    "You guys" though? I'm a Michigan fan. Just FYI.

    ahoyfrmmi

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