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OH THIS THREAD
"Chance of winning a national title at Mizzou 0%... Chance of winning a title at OSU 60%..."
Yeah okay, not with scraps on the OL. Stupid bucknuts will be stupid.
Trust me loosing out on Skipper and most likely Hunt really hurts. It basically means in 2014 we will only have 3 true tackles on the roster who aren't freshman. But the point is still valid just more like Mizzou 1% OSU 30%
You are saying that OSU has a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning an NC while Elliott is there? Pfffft.
I am saying over the next 4 years OSU has a 30 percent chance of Winning a NC. Is that really that crazzy?
Over the next 4 years what would you put UM odds of winning the NC?
I'm thinking its very high.
How many NCs have you won in the last 40?
EDIT: I'd put the odds at 10% and even that is higher than I want to go.
This post was edited by bkp1883 18 months ago
I think OSU has the best chance in the big 10, and I would still put their chances at less than 5%. I would Michigan's at maybe 2%.
Over the last 40 years 1 2002. Since 1960 4.
When Urban Meyer was at a school he actually had a ligament chance of winning a NC, UF he won 2 from 2005 - 2010.
30 % chance of winning a NC over 4 years = OSU should win a NC over the next 13 years.
Factor in consensus back to back top 5 recruiting classes and the fact that in 2014 OSU should see the same with a weak BIG makes OSU and UMs chances of landing in the NCG pretty decent.
UMs is much higher, 2% over 4 years = 1 in 200 years
You do realize we would have probably played in NC game this year if we didn't trade stuff for tats and lie about it. Now obviously we would have gotten ass stomped if we happened to play BAMA but if we played ND we would have had a decent, I would say 45% chance of beating ND.
Um, no. I think your statistical calculations need some work.
I am not 100% sure of that. Your schedule was weak enough, with some bad wins, that Bama may have still jumped you. I can't prove that though. There are others who ran the numbers who believe this to be the case.
I may be wrong but 30% over 4 years = 7.5 % chance of winning a NC a year
13 years times 7.5 % = 97.5 percent
2% over 4 years = 0.5 % per year which means to get to 50% that would take 100 years and 100 % 200 years.
Again I may be using my bad Ohio education to get these number so please double check.
No I agree with you, It defiantly wasn't a given. The reason I brought it up was to show that 30% over 4 years wasn't that crazzy.
Don't want to go into a statistic course, but that isn't how it works.
I think outside of Bama, no team has a 30% chance of winning a championship over the next four years. That is simply because of the competition from so many directions. Furthermore, several SEC teams are probably ahead of OSU on that list...at least LSU is.
Again, I think OSU has by far the best chance in the Big 10....but if I had to bet today, I would bet zero championships over the next four years...because probability is heavily skewed to that direction.
The numbers do add up but I understand its hard to apply them directly when you are talking about CFB. I would bet 0 championships over the next 4 years as well but that doesn't mean we have a 0 % chance.
Well I guess I need to check to see I have my homer glasses on. lol
Nah, it just doesnt work that way. OSU is 17/2 to win it next year. thats 12%, thats good but after 4 years it will still only be 12%. Not 48%......Bama is 5-1 to win it again, thats only 20%.....30% IS crazy high.
You didn't go to UM did you? That's 12 percent for one year, not 4 years. Please don't make the other UM posters look bad.
Extrapolating from the 17/2 odds given in 2013 (in which OSU probably has one of its easiest schedules), we can assume that OSU is not going to get significantly better as compared to its major conference rivals (Michigan) or its major NC rivals (Bama, LSU, etc.).
Bama has won 3 of the last 4 national championships, and they're still only 20%. If you honestly think OSU's odds will ever be much more than 12%, you're just deluding yourself.
As a result, it's a safe bet that in each of the following 4 years, OSU's odds are, at best, around 12%, meaning that OSU's overall chance of winning the NC in the next 4 years is, at best, around 12%.
I think it remains to be seen. the word "scraps" seems pretty harsh. IF we win B1G titles , BCS bowls games. (again these are what if's) I don't see how you can call them scraps if you get what I'm saying ??
The word "scraps" is really just an ongoing joke, but you can't deny that (with the exception of Lisle) Urban didn't get any of his Plan A linemen, and didn't really get any Plan B linemen either, and so far has only really snagged one Plan C guy. Now he's faced with the unenviable choice of either taking guys just to fill spots, or ending 2013 with a woefully small OL class.
Thank you CMXI......much more clear and understandable.....i hope
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