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This kid has all the tools. Great news for UM early.
2015 defensive end Keisean Lucier-South (Orange Lutheran HS) plans to camp with three Pac 12 schools this summer.
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Thanks. So many great prospects interested in Michigan right now. Hoke has done an amazing job. I just hope it continues into 2016 and 2017, when we should have room to take larger classes. 2014 and 2015 are expected to be frustratingly small.
I doubt they stay small though, particularly 2015. In addition to injuries, there will be logjams and transfers, particularly on the interior of the o-line, inside linebacker, and defensive back. If those classes do stay small, that's a great sign for us.
So you're counting on attrition? On the OL? Wouldn't get your hopes up... Hoke has hardly had any from his classes. That won't change. Sure we could lose 2-3 somewhere along the way but Rodriguez attrition is not returning and the result will be small class sizes.
Nobody on this board can define the word regression.... but it sure gets used a lot.
We'll lose more than 2-3. Some guys will get hurt, some won't pan out, some will want more playing time. We're not talking RR levels, we're talking normal top-tier program levels. We'll get near or just above 20 these next couple of classes. That's not frustratingly small.
No, we won't. We took 52 kids in 2012 and 2013 alone, most of whom have yet to step on the field. We are expected to finish with 18-20 in 2014 and probably only will have room for 15-18 in 2015. I consider that frustratingly small.
This post was edited by MrWoodson 13 months ago
Why do you assume they'll all stick? There are logjams and transfers just waiting to happen when you take a class of 25 followed by a class of 27. From 2013-2016 the starting guard spots will likely be held by Kalis and Braden/Bosch. Do you think Dawson, Fox, Bars and Samuelson will be content to provide depth? Some will play, some won't pan out, some will try RT, some may get hurt, some will leave.
Maybe in NCAA 13... that must be your frame of reference. Take a look around the Big Ten at steady programs like MSU, Wisconsin (before the coaching change) and Nebraksa. You're expecting way too much attrition. You're also ignoring the fact that extra scholarships each year will go to deserving walk-ons.
Logjams? I think the word you're searching for is depth. Do you see players jumping ship at Alabama, Georgia, LSU just because they're third on the depth chart? Not often.... they're more than willing to wait for their shot at starting on a title contending team. State hasn't been to a BCS game and yet they still manage relatively low levels of attrition.
And what do you even mean by injuries? Very rarely does an injury open a scholarship.... and counting on catastrophic injuries to increase class size is a really bad look.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by DJNiteFlite 13 months ago
well if they are the weakest link...we will risk their transfer to give us some scholarship openings.we are doing a decent job on the recruiting trail right now...
Unless you are at Alabama where they have four to five medical scholarships given out yearly.
Of course they're not all gping to stick, but most kids do not wash out or transfer in years 1 and 2. Over half will be redshirted. That means the vast majority of the 2013 and 2014 kids will still be here in 2015.
You have to carry four classes of kids with a handful of 5th year seniors and fit them all within a total cap of 85. There are only 26 scholarship players in the 2013 and 2014 classes. That means we have room to sign 26 players over the next two classes plus one for every player we lose due to attrition. To sign two classes of 20 or more, we will need to '"lose" 14 players or more, primarily from the 2012 and 2013 classes. That's a lot of attrition.
* Assumes Joey Burzynski was given the open scholly for 2013.
There will need to be attrition of 3 more to get to 17 for 2014 (not counting Pallante in 2014). If those three come from 2014 fifth-years then the number for 2015 is 10. We've heard that UM may go as high as 18 in 2014 so that could be 9 in 2015 (I think if there is a 4th player to leave for 2014, one is bound to be an under-classmen). 2015 is going to be very small even if attrition is above the "normal" level (pre-Carr-RR-Hoke transition years). Anything above 17 in '15 will likely mean something unusual has happened.
I agree. Everyone is just assuming we will hit 20 this year (2014), but a lot has to happen for that to be true. And the more we sign in 2014, the fewer we can sign in 2015, i.e. if we don't extend a 5th year senior into 2014 so we can sign one more in the 2014 class, that's one fewer 2014 senior who will leave the following year and open up a scholly for another commit in the 2015 class.
Depth leads to transfers. USC's runningback situation a few years back comes to mind as an example of this. There's a talent upgrade occurring right now, and it's going to lead to a lot more Kaleb Ringer-type situations. There will be more early transfers precisely because the schollie chart is tilted so heavily in the direction of first and second year players. A lot of these guys are going to grab ahold of some significant PT at a young age and others are going to get left behind. It happens at Alabama and LSU in the form of medical RSs and transfers to FCS schools. It will happen here too, although not to the extent where we are reneging on accepted offers. But when some of these guys have their post-spring meetings with Hoke next year and he gives them an honest appraisal of their spot on the team, a fair number are going to leave.
Also, scholarships to walk-ons tend to be given with the understanding that they are one year scholarships and are not guaranteed (or even likely) to be renewed in subsequent years.
Take a look at the posts above that lay out the numbers.... you clearly don't get it.... or are delusional enough to believe that we're going to lose 10+ players sometime soon. And please do tell about these walk-ons who Hoke has given a scholarship one year and not the next.... I'm pretty sure that situation has not played out at Michigan.
This post was edited by DJNiteFlite 13 months ago
Well we haven't been at or near the 85 man limit under Hoke, so what he's done with walk-ons the past couple of years isn't necessarily indicative of what will happen going forward. If we're at 84 one year, he'll give a walk-on a one year ride, but he'll still pursue 85 scholarship players the next year.
I know the numbers. I have my own scholarship table and projected depth charts for the next three years. I obviously won't post names here, but there are a fair number of players who jump out at you as not likely to be around for 4 years.
On the same day you made your Crystal Ball pick of UCLA for him, eh Justin?
I see... you've built your own imaginary world. Enjoy that I guess.
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