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Let's Talk The Game - From a Matchup Standpoint

  • There is already another thread for trash talking, and most of it is just that. I don't want to get into that thread and have a discussion about the game and have it be lost in the trash talk. So in this thread, let's talk matchups, and all things related to the actual game. Please, no trash talk, let's have a conversation about how we see the game going, with well thought out and respectful points and counterpoints.

    Let's start with my thoughts on OSU's offense vs. UM's defense. Braxton Miller is a serious threat to score on any play (either on the ground or through the air). He has some amazing moves that make opposing tacklers look silly, can buy time, and is a good enough passer to throw for big plays. I'll admit that he scares me, but what about the rest of the OSU O? Hyde has been running strong as of late and is a formidable back to compliment Miller. This makes OSU's rush offense a strength in my eyes. I am not overly impressed with their passing O, but a good rushing attack can open up things down field. The O-Line looks pretty solid, so this, much like any other game, will be a battle in the trenches. I think UM's D-Line has performed well this year, and are solid enough to make a stalemate of this battle. I don't think either line has the edge here. Michigan's LBs have been playing well and the biggest task will be to contain Miller, and keep him inside where there is help. If Miller has success breaking contain, or taking off on pass plays, it could be a long day for the UM D. That said, if UM can keep OSU in long 2nd and 3rd down situations, UM's pass defense will keep the passing game in check. Overall, I think Michigan's D wins the battle, but will allow 24 points.

    To Michigan's O vs. OSU's D, this one is tough to decipher. The recent performance of Devin Gardner makes Michigan's O more complete with a down field passing attack. That will present problems for OSU's secondary in my eyes, who seems to be a weakness for their D. The key once again will be the battle at the line of scrimmage, with OSU holding the edge here. Simon and Hankins are both tough, and Michigan's O-Line has been suspect this year. The x-factor here is having not one, but two mobile QBs, and a variety of ways to use them, as seen last week. That is a lot to game plan for, and quite frankly, I don't think the OSU D will have enough success containing Gardner and Robinson (even if he doesn't throw the ball). Does OSU's LBs have the sideline to sideline capability to keep contain on two mobile QBs. Personally, I don't think so without loading the box with a DB, which could open the down field passing game for UM. I think Michigan's O outperforms OSU's D, and puts 31 points on the board.

    Special Teams could play a big role in this game. Will either team take one to the house? That remains to be seen, but I don't think it happens (though I think a big play of some sort will). A big momentum changer could change the outcome of this game, but I am going with UM 31, OSU 24.

    Go Blue!

    Remember, let's talk game specifics, leave the trash talking to the other thread.

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  • So no trash talk?

  • OSU offense vs Michigan D- The key in my opinion is containing Braxton. Don't let him free lance and make plays. I don't think he is good enough from the pocket to light Michigan up. Carlos Hyde provides a solid threat from the running game but I don't think OSU can score big points just running the ball between the tackles with Hyde. Michigan's DL and the LB's have played well enough that at some point we would get the stop if OSU just tries pounding the ball down our throats. Mattison might have to dial it down a notch as far as how aggressive he is with the defense in order to contain Braxton. Rush 4 and have the LB's ready to pounce if Braxton tries to escape the pocket. I agree with the OP that OSU will score in the 24 point range.

    Michigan's O vs OSU's D - I really like the potential that Michigan's offense has with Devin and Denard both playing QB. Devin's ability to make throws down the field is big in this game. Ohio State has struggled in pass defense quite a bit this year. I have seen some talk about the pressure OSU can put on a team with their front 4 but Devin is fairly elusive and if they lose contain he could make some big plays. OSU is going to have to be careful in how they pressure the QB. I really expect to see Denard line up more at RB this week when Devin plays QB than he did last week against Iowa. Does Denard provide a huge spark to our running game from the RB spot? We all know he can run from the QB spot but will he have an impact at RB? I think Denard is going to have a big game. He will get at least 22 carries and go for 120 plus on the ground. Borges is going to have to not be stubborn in this game and go with what is working. If either guy is having more success at QB than the other then go with that guy. My homer prediction is Michigan puts up 41 points.

    Special teams scare me. Michigan's coverage teams have been shaky the last couple weeks. If either team has a big return it will be OSU.

    My prediction is Michigan 41-OSU 24.

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  • Seriously? It's a tough game to call. You put up 63 on Nebraska but only 17 on Sparty and 14 in regulation on Wisconsin. And 7 of your points against Wisky were on a punt return. We have a very good defense. And in the Wisky game it looked as if BM might have slowed down a step based on a full season of wear and tear. But then again we had a hell of a time stopping him last year. So idk what to think about your offense vs our defense. It could go either way.

    As for our offense vs your defense, we have several advantages. First, assuming Denard can throw, we have two offenses to choose from. If one is not working, we will almost certainly try the other. Second, Denard was more unstoppable against you last year than BM was against us and your defense this year looks no better, especially against mobile QBs. Third, your pass defense is awful and Devin Gardner has proven to be a very accurate passer. Unless you make major improvements this week or Devin just has an off day, it's hard to see how we won't be able to move the ball at least to some extent through the air.

    Finally, Gardner reminds me a little of TP, but smarter and with better passing mechanics. TP was a nightmare to defend. Gardner is particularly tough to stop in the red zone. He is tall enough to see over linemen and has a rocket for an arm. He also has good touch. And he's fast enough and hard enough to tackle that you must respect his ability to run. He is going to be the toughest QB to defend that you've seen all year.

    Bottom line: IMO the game will be decided by TOs and how well we can defend BM. I don't think you will be able to shut down our offense. If has too much variety and Devin is too good a passer for you to constantly put 8-9 men in the box. If we can't contain BM, it might turn into a shootout. But if we can, we win by two TDs.

    Prediction: UM 34 OSU 27

    This post has been edited 9 times, most recently by MrWoodson 20 months ago

  • UM pass O vs OSU pass D: UM advatage
    UM rush O vs OSU rush D: Push
    OSU pass O vs UM pass D: UM advantage
    OSU rush O vs UM rush D: Push

  • I agree with a good amount of what you are saying here. This is an honest question, because I think he is a good player, but do you think you guys may be overstating how good Gardiner is? Like I said, I.think he is a good player, but look at who he has played against. Very bad teams with bad defenses. I know OSU hasn't been great on defense all year, but since the Indiana game we have been as good as anyone in the B1G on that side of the ball. I do worry about UM attacking Howard though. He is a solid corner, but not nearly as good as he thinks. He gets picked on quite a bit.

    When OSU is on offense I agree with you that Braxton seems to have lost a little of that quickness that makes him so great and he is inconsistent at best throwing the ball. I do think the OSU O-line has a decent advantage in this game and will make the difference for our offense. They have been better than PSU and MSU, both of which I think are better up front than you guys. I think if it gets to be a shootout that its an advantage for OSU simply because I think Braxton and Hyde are the two most reliable offensive players in the game. Overall I think its a good game....31-21 Buckeyes

  • Haha, are you serious right now? EVERY QB y'all have faced this year has absolutely lit up your D. In no way, shape, or form is this even close to a push. It's a clear cut UM advantage.

    Lol, We stopped both of those guys too.

    So? This is the best D you'll face all year.

  • Well you can also look at the competition your defenses has faced. In those 4 games you have played since Indiana the best offense you have faced is Penn State at ranked 48h in the nation. Minnesota and Iowa both have passing D's ranked higher than Ohio State's. I am not that concerned about Devin against the OSU pass defense.

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  • You didn't shut down Nebraska. They put up 38 points and 437 yards (223 rushing and 214 passing) on you. And they are probably the closest thing to our offense you've seen all year.

  • Alabama and Nebraska are at least equal to OSU's O. And yes i looked up national statistics to come to that conclusion.

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  • facepalm_msu Are you saying just because you have more wins than us, that means we don't have the advantage in pass O vs your pass D? What kind of logic is that?

    And not sure. I'd say it's the most explosive, but your offense is very one dimensional. A case could be made for Northwestern as the best O we have faced, imho.

  • How good is Gardner? We don't really know because he's only played three games. But he has had three really good games. And FWIW based on total defense rankings OSU is somewhere between Iowa and Minny:

    12. Michigan
    27. Minnesota
    38. Ohio State
    60. Iowa

    Those rankings might be a bit misleading because your defense has been playing better recently than at the beginning of the season, but then again that's probably true for most teams (I know it's true for us).

    Hyde is a problem and he provides you with something we don't have on offense ... a reliable non-QB running game. But I think they key to your offense will be BM's passing. If he is passing well, it will open up your rushing game for both him and Hyde. If BM is not passing well, we will just stack the box to stop both of them. BM must be effective as a passer for you to move the ball consistently on teams with good defenses. Denard is the same. When he is throwing well, he's a nightmare to defend (see 2011 OSU v. UM game). When he is not throwing well (see every loss we've had in the past two years), he is very easy to stop.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by MrWoodson 20 months ago

  • You won because their defense was awful. Our defense is not awful. If your gameplan depends on you putting up 63 points this weekend, you are in for a nasty surprise.

  • No it doesn't, because the offense doesn't win games on their own. Defense has to get a stop, or else the game will be never ending. Wins mean nothing.

    Northwestern should have beaten Nebraska, fwiw. They had them the whole game.

    Venric Mark > Carlos Hyde

    Trevor Siemein/Kain Colter < Braxton (It's close though, imo.) Siemein/Colter combo is very underrated.

    This post was edited by TAMUWolverine 20 months ago

  • Should of beaten us as well IMO

  • Good thread guys.

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  • I think the keys that will make the difference in he game will be:

    Pressure on DGard from our front 4....If we have to blitz, then we better get to him, if not he will kill us with his feet
    Exact same for you on Braxton

    OSU DB's not losing your WR's on the double moves if DGard is scrambling

    Braxton HAS to throw the ball some, stop looking at one receiver and then tucking it...many times if he would just trust a bit more there is a receiver open....

    Turnovers....both ways....may be the biggest of all (include Punt Block in this) OSU has had too many blocked this year...