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Actually, the current system works pretty well for players like Trey Burke, who was not an NBA prospect coming out of high school but became a lottery pick with two years in college and won't be forced to risk injury or regression with a third (or fourth) year in school.
The system also seems to work just fine for the NBA...I know this, because the NBA would change it if it didn't work for the NBA.
The system also works better than your proposal for players with no hope of making the NBA. If NBA-ready players were forced to stay in college an extra year or two, that would mean that for those one or two years they would be occupying scholarship/roster spots that would otherwise be going to new players. More player turnover to the NBA = more scholarships available for players not going to the NBA.
Additionally, using that same logic, players who might have a chance at the NBA have it better under the current system, because there are more starting spots/minutes for them to showcase themselves. For instance, say your system had been in place for the past couple years. Last year (2011-2012) would have been Darius Morris' mandatory third year at Michigan, meaning that we would have gotten a year of Morris going through the paces and trying not to do anything to injure himself (see, e.g., Shabazz Muhammed's performance for UCLA this year) instead of Burke's breakout campaign. Is that really better?
Also, last time I checked, Kentucky got bounced from the NIT by Robert Morris this year. That's what happens with teams that rely heavily on one-and-done types...some years they'll just be too stacked for anyone to ocmpete with, and some years they'll fail to get chemistry or they'll suffer an injury and the team won't be successful. Meanwhile, the championship was won by a Louisville squad featuring precisely zero freshmen in the starting lineup, and only one guy (Gorgui Dieng, #24, a junior) on Chad Ford's Big Board of draft prospects. There's still a place for building great teams over time in the college game.
You bring up some interesting points, but still not sure I agree. Burke benefited in the current setup, but plenty of players like him leave after the 1st season and let's not mention that many programs with a player like Burke get upended by him leaving early. Michigan should still be alright, but not many programs can haul in a recruit like Walton to replace Burke. You also have to remember the mindset is different when players know they have to be there for 3 years. You don't see college football players "going through the motions" in their 3rd seasons because they knew coming in they had to go through that season.
Plus, for every player like Burke that it helps, it hurts players like Muhammad and Noel who would have been really high draft picks out of high school. What good did it do them going to college? They surely didn't complete degrees in that short of a span and they won a combined 0 tourney games. Both guys have talent, but it's pretty hard to argue the system helped these guys.
Does it work better for players with no hope of the NBA though? Many scholarships at major universities are now taken up by players who should not be forced to go to college. Kentucky is a perfect example. Plenty of guys who have gone to the Wildcats would probably have gone straight to the NBA. And of course, I don't need to mention that massive changes that are occurring to college teams on a yearly basis. It seems like every team in every offseason now goes through massive changes and drama due to 1 or 2 players making an NBA decision early.
Kentucky was down this year, but that had more to do with the recruiting talent last year than anything they did. And right now, they will probably be the preseason #1 coming into next season. They could easily win their 2nd national championship in 3 years with players that shouldn't even be in college. Not sure I'd call that a failure
Basketball Analyst For BTPowerhouse & Wolverine 247 - Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tbeindit
so when are Mcgary, RGIII, and Hardaway making their decision?
I think, by and large, the sorts of programs that produce underclassmen NBA players can recruit guys that will be able to more or less replace them. Here are the programs that have a freshman or sophomore on Chad Ford's Big Board: Kentucky, Michigan, Indiana, Kansas, Georgetown, UCLA, UNC, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, UNLV, Baylor, Pitt, North Texas, Oklahoma State. With a couple of exceptions, that's a who's who of the college basketball world. But even if that weren't the case, I don't know how much I'd care. As I noted before, colleges can still develop high quality, experienced teams without loading them up with NBA talent. Losing good players after not very long is a reality that every team in a limited-eligibility sport has to deal with.
I don't think you can compare college football players with basketball players in that way. For one thing, it's ***exceedingly*** rare that a sophomore football player is NFL-ready the way freshman and sophomore basketball players can be NBA-ready. It's even rarer still that a sophomore football player would be so obviously NFL-ready that he even could pull a Shabazz without really powerfully harming his draft stock. The closest you'd see to that in football is like a Jadaveon Clowney...and with him, there's been a lot of discussion this offseason of if he should even play for SCAR this year. Also, the cultures of the two sports/leagues are different...the NBA is going to be a little bit more tolerant of loafing in college than the NFL is. Also, its not even really possible to pull a Shabazz in football, except maayyyyybbbbbeeeee for wide receivers.
I agree that Muhammad and Noel were hurt by the present system...I would favor the NBA getting rid of the one year requirement entirely. I don't think that means everyone who's not a lottery pick coming out of high school should be forced to stay in college for 3 years though.
I'm not saying Kentucky is a "failure," I'm saying they weren't successful this year and they can probably expect to not be very successful in a fair few years. And even in the cases where all the talent on a Kentucky-like team gels into a good or elite team, the NCAA tournament is such a crap shoot that they won't win the tournament every time out, even when they're the most talented team. I'm saying that there are multiple ways to skin the college basketball cat and that the current system doesn't doom us all to watching teams of five NBA-bound freshmen cut down the banners every year, the way your post seemed to imply.
I agree the major college powers are the ones who are getting a good hunk of the NBA talent, but we also are consistently discussing the parity in college hoops and how the elite have fallen. There's no way schools are going to resist pulling in NBA talent for a year or two, but I think we're starting to see the effects of this system on the college teams as more and more players are jumping and disrupting the program.
I completely agree that college football players are much different and I wasn't arguing for changing the college football system. I was just pointing out that I don't think you would see similar arguments for people not playing hard their junior year if it was a requirement. There are questions about Clowney, but I would be willing to bet he goes full out this season.
I certainly agree that the 1 year requirement should be removed at a minimum because it makes no sense. I also agree that we won't see a Kentucky-like team win the title every year. The main point I was trying to make is that the current policy is upending college basketball, hurting the NBA Draft, and hurting players in the process. To me, the current system is just bad on every level.
Still can't get over Kentucky losing in the NIT
Marcus Smart has decided to return for his sophomore year. Burke should be the #1 PG drafted now, right?
Based on potential and size, I could see a team taking MCW before him.
Michael Rothstein @mikerothstein 12m
Tim Hardaway Jr. will be having a press conference this afternoon. (edit: 3pm)
This post was edited by Dizzo 12 months ago
3pm to be exact. Most signs point towards him entering the NBA
I know this is the case, but it is quite laughable to me. MCW is Darius Morris in the NBA. Can't shoot, not an elite handle, and not elite speed. His size gives him the possibility to be an elite defender - but it's so hard to say that anybody out of Syracuse is a plus defender because all they've ever played is that zone.
I would've drafter Smart before Burke, but I would not touch MCW in the lottery.
I agree with this. It's impossible to judge where MCW will be capable in the NBA because he will have to cover man-to-man. At best it will take a year or two to "unlearn" the muscle memory of the zone, IMO. He's a 39% shooter, 29% 3-point shooter, 69% foul shooter, who didn't play man-to-man, and a lot of his assists probably came on transition plays due to zone-forced-turnovers.
Exactly. But he's tall!!! The only players I'd definitely take before Burke in the draft are Noel and Oladipo. I'd give real serious thought to McLemore, Muhammad, and Anthony Bennett - but that's about it.
Marcus Smart shocked many by turning down a top-5 pick and returning for his sophomore season.
* * * N E O . R E T R O * * *
Burke to Magic makes sense.
Yahoo now reporting Hardaway will enter the NBA Draft
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I'm still not sure where he'll end up going, but the Piston fan in me really wants McLemore as a pure scorer to fall to them. It could happen with Burke being the best PG in the draft now.
Hardaway gone...good luck to him.
how do u know?its not 3 yet
I really like Bennett, two inches taller and isn't a discussion who the #1 pick is. Reminds me of Blake Griffin, without the crazy jumping.
Yahoo and a poster on another board
im starting to think GRob and McGary might be gone now too...
Agree. Mcgary's age is the factor. You wouldn't think 3 good games is enough to make millions though
This post was edited by Aces High 12 months ago
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