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A lot of us have noticed that Hoke and staff have seemed to be really stepping up their recruitment of Southern prospects in the 2014 class, but TOS just ran an article claiming essentially the opposite: that Michigan is mostly abandoning the South, along with California, in favor of attempting to dominate the Midwest. In support of this idea, they noted that the 2013 class will be the first Michigan class since 1989 that will not feature any prospects from California, Florida, or Texas. Intrigued by this contradiction, I decided to see if I could quantify the coaches' geographical interests for both the two completed classes under Hoke and the upcoming 2014 class.
I think part of the reason I've had this perception, at least, is that we seem to have more top targets from the South in 2014: guys like Elijah Hood, Corey Holmes, Demarre Kitt, and the East Lake duo seem like higher priorities early in the cycle than other Southern kids of late have at this point. I don't have any way to quantify that though, so this analysis is just going to look at offers by geographic area. To do this, I've divided the country into the following regions:
1. South/SEC - Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Florida
2. East Coast - Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, DC, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
3. Big Ten - Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska
5. Other - North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii
South/SEC: 42 offers out of 134 total: 31.3%
East Coast: 22 of 134: 16.4%
Big Ten: 50 of 134: 37.4%
California: 9 of 134: 6.7%
Other: 11 of 134: 8.2%
South/SEC: 39 of 137: 28.5% -2.8%
East Coast: 28 of 137: 20.4% +4.0%
Big Ten: 49 of 137: 35.8% -1.6%
California: 14 of 137: 10.2% +3.5%
Other: 7 of 137: 5.1% -3.1%
South/SEC: 27 of 68: 39.7% +11.2%
East Coast: 14 of 68: 20.6% +0.2%
Big Ten: 19 of 68: 27.9% -7.9%
California: 2 of 68: 2.9% -7.3%
Other: 6 of 68: 8.8% +3.7%
Obviously it's still very early in this class - if the total number of offers is close to in line with the last two classes, we still have about 60-70 more offers to hand out - but as of right now, the coaches do seem to be significantly more focused on SEC country than before. I say, "bring it on!" National recruiting: not just for Sparty anymore lol
This post was edited by inuyesta 18 months ago
If we have a big season in 2013...I think we'll see a lot 2014 prospects from the south gain a lot of interest.
"Those Who Stay...Will be Champions"
Absolutely. And I think that's precisely what the coaches are trying to position themselves for right now: show a lot of interest early with these top Southern guys, keep UM on their minds, and then say holla when we stomp ND in the big house Week 2 and jump into the top-10.
I think we'll have to be like 7-0 or so to be in the top 10
Really? We're gonna start the year somewhere in the 15-25 range, probably around 20th. Then:
CMU - win convincingly, no real change unless people lose
ND - ND should come into this game ranked pretty high; the "way too early" rankings I've seen have had them somewhere between #6 and #12. This'll be a primetime game, well-hyped, everyone will see it, might even be the Gameday game. Depending on where they are and where we are, I think a solid win in this game could propel us to as high as #9, and certainly no lower than #15
Akron - win convincingly, no real change unless people lose
Connecticut - win convincingly, no real change unless people lose
BYE - no change
Minnesota - win convincingly, probably no real change
Penn State - I think this is the game where, if we come out 6-0, we should certainly be top-10 by that point. 6-0, win over a top-10ish team, quality road win at Penn State (who should be undefeated going into the game), hype for Devin Gardner and possibly some other players (Green the Freshman Sensation?) should be building, string of beatdowns from our cake-like early schedule to make us look good, plus we're Michigan.
edit: as to whether we'll be the Gameday game for Notre Dame week, our competition seems to be Florida-Miami and Georgia-South Carolina. So, probably Gameday will be going to the Georgia game, but we'll be in the running.
I expect Minnesota to be ranked in the top 25 when Michigan plays the Gophers in 2013.
Look at Minnesota's 2013 schedule. The Gophers should be 5-0 coming into Michigan stadium.
* * * N E O . R E T R O * * *
I agree that Minnesota should be 5-0 when they come play us, but I'm unsure that they'll be ranked, just because of the "B1G sucks" thing. Minnesota got to 4-0 without being ranked last year (they didn't even get votes at 4-0 in the AP poll, and got only 11 points in the coaches poll at that time), and their first five games this year are even softer.
Fine by me, just stay away from the northeast.
Two things I would point out:
1) I don't remember this staff targeting too many sleeper targets from south. The vast majority of offers to the south were feeler types to guys like Montravious Adams, or Tunsil that went no where. For these last two years, while the staff has been focusing on building depth, their serious targets came from the midwest where they could expect to be more successful. With depth not being such a driver of recruiting, it would stand to reason the coaches would cast a wider net.
I would also expect that those numbers will skew more and more towards the Big 10 grouping.
2) You got 12 football crazy states in the southern group, and 9 not so crazy midwestern states. I'm pretty sure there are simply a lot more BCS level prospects in that southern group, so that would just naturally have a higher percentage.
Not so fast my friend. I think we will have a great shot at gameday. The atmosphere two years ago should contribute to bringing it here. Also, nd was in the championship game last year....that is also a big promotion. It will be a close call, but i like our chances
1. Ya, I definitely agree. The past two classes have had to be big because we needed to rebuild numbers. With this class being 7-9 players smaller, the coaches probably feel like they can devote more energy to really target elite guys from around the country instead of spreading a wide net with high likelihood guys. I also expect the South percentage to go down as we offer more Californian and Midwestern players...the question is just how much it will go down. Will the coaches keep finding more Southern kids to offer, or are they more or less done? fwiw Hoke and Funk are in Texas today, so we could get some of the answer to the question soon.
2. Well, you would think so, but if you look at the 2012 and 2013 numbers I posted, we've typically offered more prospects from Big Ten country than the South.
Also we have 2 big visit weekends this year, with the night game against ND (that will be electric again) and Ohio. The ND game will be the bigger visit nationally as a whole
Does Gameday try to hit some northern games early in the season before the weather changes?
plus this will be the last time ND/UM play for a long a time. As far as OP's comments might be that way because the B10 area might be down as a whole this year. I have noticed you guys hitting Cali and SEC a lot more this year.
This post was edited by star69 17 months ago
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