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This team is not going anywhere in March.
"We're here to preserve democracy, not practice it." Go Army! Go Blue!
Forgot to mention we suck as well.
I was holding out hope, but really I have no faith. Every team is now doubling Trey coming off pick and roll and he just is not finding people when that happens.
We'll be fine. The loss sucks, but then again they all do. This wasn't just one thing. It was a number of things, some within our control and some not. This is still a very good albeit very young team and lesser teams make deep runs in the NCAA almost every year.
JB can't these guys to play hard for 40 mins. Plus he once again was out coached. Sorry, but if I were a betting man, I say we lose to MSU, @purdue, and IU. We are a 4 seed to start the dance and we get beat in the first round. All losses come not against better teams... But teams with heart who have coaches who know how to win and coach talent.
And I really can't wait to see Timmy's Tweet, apologizing once again and promising that the team won't let it happen again, blah blah blah. Newsflash, Tim: this was more embarrassing than losing by 30 in EL.
This team is not fine at the moment. There are many glaring weaknesses which will be magnified and exploited come March. And even in the tournament, if we are playing a very good mid-major team early and they stick around, more and more opposing fans or neutral fans root for the underdog and that could become a hostile environment. We are 2-5 our last 7 road games & had no business losing this game. Or the Wisconsin game. We did control our destiny and fumbled it away.
Man...I wish I could be more like you! I envy your ability to keep even keel after once again a rather embarrassing moment for Michigan athletics.
This team is anything but fine at this point, this team is the mother effing Hindenburg.
And the coach looks like a hapless high school social studies teacher. Embarrassing.
Take a deep breath. It's just a basketball game. And this is the same team and same HC that had us at 23-4 coming into this game. We'll be fine.
This post was edited by MrWoodson 14 months ago
Let me tell you something about team trajectory..
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by UMSkeletor 14 months ago
I watched IU and UF go down last night to teams they easily should have beaten. Right now, I'm watching UConn ahead of G-town in OT. MSU lost their last two games. It happens.
Yes it does, but they need to pull out of this tailspin.
Yes, bad games happen. Losing at OSU, losing at IU? Yeah okay, it happens. Losing at Wisky? Yeah okay it happens. Losing at MSU by what could have been 40? Yeah sure...I guess that happens.
Losing to PENN STATE??? Yeah okay maybe that happens, but you know what else will happen? MSU running us off our own court? Yeah that will happen if these guys don't find their nuts.
UNPIN this fricking thread
I mentioned early in the season that team defense was a concern. The numbers don't lie in this case.
Here's are Ken Pom's adjusted efficiency stats for Michigan's offense and defense from year-to-year under Coach Beilein. The number in parentheses are the national rank.
2008: 103.3 (148)
2009: 111.3 (44)
2010: 106.7 (94)
2011: 112.8 (31)
2012: 113.0 (22)
2013: 121.4 (2)
2008: 96.3 (80)
2009: 95.2 (67)
2010: 92.9 (53)
2011: 93.0 (34)
2012: 95.1 (60)
2013: 91.8 (42)
So the offense has clearly improved from horrible to average to good to very good to elite. On the other hand, the defense has stagnated on the border between barely good and average.
Also, expect the 2013 number to rise which means Michigan's national rank will fall after tonight's game is calculated.
This post was edited by Frank C 14 months ago
* * * N E O . R E T R O * * *
There are something like 337 D-1 teams. A defense ranked in the 40s is far above average. And this team is very, very young. Defense is something that improves with maturity and experience. I'd say the team is doing ok considering they often have three true freshmen on the floor at the same time.
Come on, I've seen your posts from earlier, if someone had told you we'd lose to PSU tonight you'd have called them overly negative etc. and now you have a perfectly fine expectation for everything. It's like you're the Lloyd Carr of posters here "Our goal is to win the Big Ten championship" *goes 7-5* "It was a good year..."
Of course I didn't think we would lose tonight. I didn't think Kansas would lose to TCU or Miami would lose to WF either. But it happens. It doesn't mean those teams are suddenly crap and it doesn't mean those coaches can't coach. The same is true for us. You guys are in classic meltdown mode because you're disappointed. Fine, I get it. And if we turn around and beat MSU this weekend you will all be on a big high. I'm just trying to keep it all in perspective.
Exactly. Even the Miami Heat got taken to double-OT against one of the worst teams in the league just the other night. In basketball upsets like this happen very frequently, especially in college when there's less time on the clocks. We were up by 15, all that needed to happen was for PSU to shoot lights out and for us to go cold for a stretch, both of which happened. Not saying it's okay, but it isn't the end of the world. It sucks we won't be winning the B1G this season, but let's be honest, 90% of what people care about is how far we go in March.
Well its going to be the same next year as well with the early departures all but guaranteed. Are we going to use this next year too? I understand they are young. But the expectations at this point in the season, especially after weeks of mediocre play is to at least play with some heart. Honestly if we play at this level, we won't beat MSU or IU and don't look to get too deep in the tourney.
I am probably the last guy to get on a high after a win. Read through this thread and others on hoops and you'll find I have been mostly critical and warning against over-confidence. I always said this team will lose games, will have bad outings. I have perspective.
But from every perspective, this team has looked bad for a month now and actually it had bad stretches that were in hindsight ominous signs of our demise even in some of the wins. The team is flawed without a doubt, a pretender. But this is where perspective comes in, next to Kansas losing at TCU this is the worst loss this year in college hoops, it will be all over ESPN etc. remember what Self said about his team after that game? That was a coach, not a fan on a message board.
So this is what perspective tells me, this team is on a unforgiving downward trajectory, players aren't responding, players play in such a way as to emphasize their weaknesses rather than their strengths, there's no chemistry, half the time players aren't even sure where they should be on opponents' fairly deliberate and transparent offensive buildups, that's bad, really bad. That points at problems beyond tiredness and inexperience. This team just lost in about as embarrassing a fashion as one might possibly lose in a basketball regular season game. There's no IFs and BUTs about it, there's nothing to put in perspective here. This team is overrated and has various glaring weak spots that even bad teams can figure out and exploit on a reasonable shooting night and things are getting worse not better.
Morgan will be a senior next year. Horford will be a junior. Stauskas, McGary, GRIII, Albrecht and Levert all will be sophomores. It will make a world of difference. It will be similar to the difference we see in IU this year versus last year. Last year IU was very young (though not as young as we are this year) and it showed in certain games. It also showed significantly on the defensive end of the court. IU is a much more consistent team and plays better defense this year primarily because they are a more mature and more experienced team. Ferrell is the only freshman who sees substantial minutes and he is often one of the weak links when they struggle. The other frequent weak link when they struggle: Cody Zeller, the sophomore. That is not a coincidence.
This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by MrWoodson 14 months ago
337 teams don't get into the NCAAT. 64 teams do. (I don't care for the the play-in games. Those are pleasantries.)
Michigan's defense last year was ranked in the high 50s going into the NCAAT. The first round loss to the Ohio Bobcats dropped Michigan to around 60.
The average defense of all tournament teams falls in a general range of high 80s to mid 90s.
In other words, Michigan's defense last year was in the bottom half compared against the average. And this year Michigan's defense seems to be trending in the same direction.
Lastly, youth does not sufficiently explain or excuse the noticeable regression in defense over this season. The toughness of the B1G conference schedule is not a good explanation or excuse either.
Your original post had nothing to do with the NCAA tournament. You said we have an average defense and cited years worth of defensive rankings. You never mentioned the NCAA tournament once. Whether we have an average defense for the typical NCAA field, I have no idea. I suspect that prior to Jordan Morgan's injury we were better than average because of all the auto bids, but I really don't know. It had nothing to do with your post.
FWIW we are the eighth youngest team out of all 337 D-1 teams in the country ... and it matters. Despite our youth, our D this year was running in the low to mid 30s up until Jordan Morgan got hurt. It then fell off significantly. That should not be a surprise to anyone. Morgan's our only experienced post player and one of only two upperclassmen who generally see the floor at all except for garbage time. As Morgan returns to 100%, our defense should trend back to where it was before the injury.
No one is saying this team is the frontrunner to win the national championship, but it's a very good team. It's also a very young team. People need to realize that. Experience matters and you can't hold this team to the same standards across the board that you do much more mature teams like Duke, Kansas and IU. Those teams are dominated by sophomores, juniors and seniors not freshmen. That's not to say we can't play with them, but expecting us to do everything as good or better is unrealistic. Some things, such as playing tough defense and handling pressure situations, generally improve as players mature. It's unrealistic to expect freshmen to understand all aspects of the game and play with the same level of consistency and poise as juniors and seniors.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson 14 months ago
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