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Assuming UNL finishes the regular season unbeaten it would also help our cause if they beat Wisky in the CCG. If Wisky wins then UNL might get chosen over us anyway. Not impossible. It would be up to the voters and computers at that point.
4 BCS Bowls and National Championship game = 10 teams, 5 conference champions and 5 at large bids. That'll leave ND, a 2nd SEC team, 2nd Big 12 team(OU), 2nd ACC team(Clemson, FSU) and a 2nd PAC12 team. Let's face it, we don't get an at large, our only shot is to win the conference.
Go Blue & Gig Em'!
To each their own, but I'd much rather beat an undefeated OSU in their own stadium.
I understand all this talk and i hate to be a party pooper..but lets get payback on Iowa 1st
This post was edited by MichiganMan 24 17 months ago
If you read through the first page, you'll see that Oklahoma and Clemson might get eliminated from the discussion with another loss late in the season.
Also, the Pac-12 might not get an at-large this year since Stanford will almost surely lose to Oregon.
* * * N E O . R E T R O * * *
This isn't quite right. First of all there's 6 conference champions and ND gets an AQ if they finish top 8, so there's 3 spots. For those 3 spots:
1. Second SEC team is a lock
2. Second Big 12 team (OU) is a lock if they win out, which I think they'll do.
but for the 3rd spot...
Clemson is currently #11 at 9-1, but they still have to play SCAR. If they lose, which I think they will, they could easily fall out of the top 14 and not be eligible. Or, even if they stay top 14, they'll be one of the least impressive 9-2 teams possible...their best win would be Ball State, the only other team with a winning record they've beaten is Duke. No other ACC team is close for this spot.
In the Pac-12, there's Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC as potentials. But Stanford and Oregon State both still have to play Oregon, so they'll be knocked out of contention. USC and UCLA still have to play each other, so that's a guaranteed loss for one of them, and the winner of that game has to go play Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game and lose again. The way the schedules shape up, I think there are only two ways an at-large team can come out of the Pac-12, and neither of them seem very likely:
(1) Stanford beats Oregon to win the Pac-12 North, then beats USC/UCLA in the championship game; Oregon becomes the at-large
(2) UCLA or USC beats Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game; Oregon becomes the at-large.
If things go to plan, though (i.e., Oregon wins out), the Pac-12 won't have an eligible at-large team.
So, really, if we win out, the spot is between us and Clemson. I articulated why I think Clemson would likely get chosen instead of us, but if they lose to SCAR it might not matter and we'd get in by default.
Thank you for typing that out inuyesta. Great explanation.
Agree with everything except Oklahoma winning out. I just get the sense that OU will lose at least one of its two remaining road games.
Just realized I neglected to account for the possibility that Oregon State could beat Oregon and thus finish 10-2 and in the top-14 as a clear at-large candidate. But I really don't think that'll happen.
as for Oklahoma, I just don't really see them losing...WVU is in free-fall and TCU was never all that great to begin with. Massey Ratings gives Oklahoma only a 17% and 23% of losing those games, respectively, and has them as 2:1 favorites against Oklahoma St. as well.
OU doesn't need to lose all three games. They only need to lose one of the three. If you add up the odds, it's greater than a 50/50 chance they lose another game.
FWIW I agree with everyone who says UM in a BCS game this year is a longshot. First we need to beat OSU in Columbus and then we need a couple of other teams to lose, but it's not a crazy hypothetical. And don't forget that a loss by Nebraska opens up a path for UM to reach the Rose Bowl. Upsets happen every week and Nebraska is far from immune.
This post was edited by MrWoodson 17 months ago
Indeed. Nebraska did have the "WTF?!?!" loss to Northwestern at home last season. It could happen again.
And they barely beat both NW and MSU this year (the latter with some help from the officials). UNL's last two games are against Minnesota and @Iowa. Minnesota has been up and down this year but they have improved significantly since Kill took over. Iowa has the kind of defense that will give them a shot in the event Nebraska does not play its best. All it will take is a couple of TOs or for Martinez to have an off day and the game in Iowa City could be up for grabs. Iowa did beat Sparty.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson 17 months ago
They also needed to comeback from down 17 in the second half to beat Wisconsin. 4 of Nebraska's conference wins they were down double digits in the second half. Their fifth win was against Michigan with their third string quarterback.
At the same time, Nebraska deserves credit for consistently overcoming double digit deficits (Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Penn State).
Has any team ever been down at least 10 points in 4 or more Big Ten games and gone on to win the conference?
This is the attitude you guys should have. I know that is ultimately how we felt last year when we knew we didn't have much of a season ahead of us, or post season I should say.
However, I do not think you guys will be able to beat us this year. Never too soon for some talk about The Game is it?
Do you guys see a similar game to last year, or even 2006 where it is again a shootout, with the defenses not being able to stop the opposing offense, and maybe last team with the ball/or whoever has the most possessions (though turnover etc..) wins? I do. Winning team has above 30 points
We're not getting in with 3 losses, unless it's the Rose Bowl.
There are too many teams with either 1 or 2 losses that would have to lose. Bottom line is we need Nebraska to lose, and we need to win.
Edit: Before someone points me to Inuyesta's very well written explanation above... Yes I read that. It's just asking for too much.
This post was edited by Clarkw267 17 months ago
I have maintained that our defense is not that great. Its good, but nothing special.
it wasn't about the three loses. they weren't ranked in the top 14. you have to be a top 14 team to go to a bcs bowl
well, yeah. and the reason they weren't top-14 was they had three losses...
At 9-3...there is no BCS bowl.
I imagine the same can be said about this year
Able to? Certainly. Not positive we will, but I like our chances.
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