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EDIT: updated projections about the actual B1G bowl lineup added in a later post
Obviously this year is pretty much regarded as the epitome of "lol B1G" and we've all had to endure comments about how the B1G might as well be the ACC or Big East. Unfortunately, it looks like this isn't going to end this bowl season; in fact, given the strength at the top of the SEC and how many of the conference's bowl games are against them, this could be a pretty historic wipeout.
Consider the following bowl matchups, which I think represents a reasonable projection of how bowl season might look.
Rose: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Capital One: Michigan vs. Florida
Outback: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Gator: Northwestern vs. Mississippi State
Buffalo Wild Wings: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech
Meineke Car Care: Michigan State vs. West Virginia
Ticket City: Purdue vs. Tulsa
(note: Little Caesar's Bowl is omitted because we won't have enough bowl eligible teams to send them someone. It's also possible that either or both of Purdue and Michigan State will fail to become bowl-eligible).
Run these matchups through Massey Ratings' engine, and you get the following projections:
Stanford 27 Nebraska 24, STAN 56% chance of winning
Florida 19 Michigan 7, FLA 83% chance of winning
South Carolina 27 Wisconsin 20, SCAR 73% chance of winning
Mississippi St 24 Northwestern 21, MSSU 56% chance of winning
Texas Tech 38 Minnesota 20, TTU 90% chance of winning
Michigan State 28 West Virginia 27, MSU 52% chance of winning
Tulsa 34 Purdue 31, TLSA 59% chance of winning
There's obv room to quibble with some of these - for instance, I think Michigan would likely fare a little bit better than that against Florida - but that's not a pretty picture. And it could easily be worse: the above game projections assume that Oregon, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M will get invited to non-B1G bowls (NCG, BCS at-large, Cotton, and Chick-fil-A respectively), but that's obviously not a given. It's also possible that Oklahoma could get passed over for an at-large, pushing Oklahoma State into the Minnesota game.
The point is that the B1G could easily go 1-6 or 0-7 this bowl season. I won't care much if it's 1-6 so long as the 1 is Michigan finding an upset against their SEC opponent, but brace yourselves for possibility of intense ridicule this go 'round.
This post was edited by inuyesta 16 months ago
Re-circulate this thread in about a month when we actually give a fukc then....thanks
hhahahahhhahahhahaahahahahahaha +1 for you my friend
"Those Who Stay...Will be Champions"
Actual B1G bowl matchups, with the Massey projections
Massey projections for B1G bowls
STAN: 24, 70% to win
UGA: 38, 77%
SCAR: 28, 73%
NW: 28, 53%
Heart of Dallas
OKST: 44, 90%
Buffalo Wild Wings
TCU: 13, 60%
Meineke Car Care
TTU: 35, 83%
So, the Big Ten is actually in a little bit worse shape than the projections I made three weeks ago. Under the projections in the OP, the average B1G bowl team had a 33.57% chance of winning its game; this has slipped to 28.57%. Similarly, the average B1G bowl team has slipped from a 6.42-point underdog to an 8-point underdog. As before, only one Big Ten team is favored to win its bowl game.
Obviously this doesn't mean the conference will necessarily go 1-6 this season. Still, binomial probability says that the Big Ten going 0-7 (9.49% chance) is almost equally likely as it having a winning record (10.83% chance). The silver lining here is that the two most lopsided games are among the lowest profile of the games, while 3 of the conference's 4 best shots are on New Years Day...with any luck, the B1G can avoid being shut out on New Years Day the way it was in the 2010-11 season.
Maybe this seems like it doesn't really matter, but perception is everything in CFB. If Ohio State were eligible for the postseason this year, they'd still not make the NCG - at #3 in the AP poll, the gap between them and #2 Alabama is wider than the gap between them and #6, twice-beaten Georgia. This should be really concerning to us, both in terms of any ambitions we might have about next year (when, with all of our difficult games at home, we could be in competition for a title game shot if everything breaks right. Or, alternatively and more realistically, if we fall short of the B1G title again, this would be relevant for our BCS at-large candidacy) and any ambitions we have of breaking into the playoff in 2014 and beyond.
I guess this post doesn't really have a purpose, except as a starting point for discussion about the bowl lineup. Definitely root for the conference to hit that 10.8% shot at a winning record though; 4-3 with a couple New Years Day wins over the SEC would be huge for us moving forward.
Im not even excited for the first time ever. Its going to be a blood bath.
Call me an optimist or some may say crazy but i think SCe is a game we win. Don't think it is me being a homer either. Sure SCe has a good DL but if we can give DG some extra time I think we will be fine. Also we have to play DRob as a RB. Lots of things to breakdown but if I had to pick a team to square off against in the SEC, SCe would be the one.
I love our matchup. Thats sbout it
Massey throws like a girl.
I'd pick Mississippi State over them, but yeah, very pleased to have dodged TAMU/Georgia/Florida
Basically, the Big 10 will do as well as it always does...which in other words, is not well.
To be honest, I could care less about the conference and how they fair. As long as Michigan takes care of business, then the rest will take care of itself. Win the B1G and go from there.
My point is that unless the B1G is perceived as strong, or at least decent, winning it isn't going to mean much on the national stage. If our only ambition is to get to the Rose Bowl, then, you know, fine. But this is Michigan fergodssakes, and if we can't get into the BCS NCG or even a 4 team playoff at 12-1, that's a major problem. Look at Clemson, which reached its peak at #11 with a 10-1 record entirely because they play in the ACC, which is perceived as garbage. Or Florida State, #10 with a 10-1 record. Both of them ranked behind 3 2-loss teams, both of them considered completely out of the national title race as soon as they lost their first game, Tajh Boyd not getting a serious look at the Heisman despite putting up numbers as good or better than any other QB in the country. With the way perception of the B1G is going, we could be in that boat next.
I think it's hilarious how ya'll think we're not in the same league as Florida and Georgia.
Florida might as well not even have an offense. Georgia the game shouldve been 35-0 but the backups were in so it was 35-7
Yeah, I think it is possible we are not giving USCe enough credit. I don't deny that.
That said, almost all of us think SC should be favored...so we are giving you solid respect.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson 16 months ago
But I have no idea how gamecock4life99 is saying "Florida might as well not even have an offense" when they beat you 44-11. I don't care how much they benefited from turnovers on your side of the field, you don't get to lose to someone by 33 and then talk sh!t about them.
The cocks will be formidable, as they are better then nearly every team in the B1G, and one of the better teams we play this year. Was Lattimore playing in your victory over Georgia???
He was, Lattimore went down against Tennessee two weeks after the Georgia game.
That was a weird game.. Florida had 180 yards of offense.. but 44 points..
Ok perfect...then you can easily throw away their performance against Georgia, as we can against Nebraska
Thanks for putting this together. Once again, the B1G will have a chance to turn some heads and help the conference's reputation by pulling out some impressive wins this bowl season.
There are some tough matchups, to be sure, but I think each game is winnable for the B1G team. I could see it going either way - anywhere from 1-6 to 6-1. Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State are the games I feel the best about. Nebraska and Michigan can both pull it out if they play well. Purdue and Minnesota could get destroyed if they don't come to play, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them both keep it close and have a shot to win.
Not to take anything away from Latty, because all of us Carolina fans love him, but over the last three years we are 8-1 without him with 2 wins over Clemson, a 30-13 win over Nebraska last year, and a win vs Florida. He makes our offense extremely better, but we have serviceable backups at RB one of which is extremely experienced. with 1500 career rushing yards. We lost two games which were in back to back weeks @Florida and @LSU. We played UGA the week prior with no bye weeks in the mix at all. By the time the second half of the Florida came around we were completely beat. No team in the country could go 3-0 in that stretch. Our defense is going to be the best defense you've seen since Alabama. We have 7 seniors who start, and many more who play on defense, most of which are fringe draft picks who are going to work their tail off to improve their stock. I've watched every SEC play all season, and maybe I'm a homer, but I'd rank the SEC 1. Bama 2. LSU 3. FLA 4. SC 5. TAMU 6. UGA
Texas A&M gets a ton of love, but they had the exact same two losses as we did, yet they were at home.
Good luck in the game. An early guess from me is USC- 31 Mich- 17. Let me hear something about your team since I can truthfully say I don't know a whole lot other than Denard. I think the only Michigan game I watched was Bama. I'm sure a lot has changed since then.
To be honest, it really comes down to how Borges (the offense coordinator) calls the game. For us to win, we need Devin Gardner and Denard on the field at the same time. If for whatever reason what we are trying to do doesnt work in the first quarter, or through the 2nd quarter....we are screwed. Borges is terrible at in game adjustments, and a game that you may have saw regarding such was last years Sugar Bowl against Va Tech. He game plans a certain way, and if that plan doesnt pan out, there really is not a sufficient plan b or c with our lack of talent and depth. We have no running game, so Denard needs to be utilized in that capacity unequivocally to counter your defense filled with numerous superlatives.
EDIT: No need for that last question. Please don't let that happen again. - TW
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by Todd Worly 16 months ago
You're not. They win championships, you don't.
Top 3 opponents for each:
SC: UF, UGA, LSU
UM: ND, BAMA, ohio
Don't wanna hear about your schedule this year. All three of our opponents are ranked higher. And truthfully this is the best matchup we could hope for. I'm not real sure which SC will show up....the one that played Wofford, 1st half of Kentucky, the one that played Tennessee, the one that played UF, or the one that beat UGA, Mizzou, played LSU tough. We just don't know.
Dude we played UGA, @LSU, @FLA back to back to back weeks. Some were wondering about our performance with Florida, and I was giving a reason behind it. I've watched every play of every game we've played. We aren't two different teams. Like anyone if we turn it over we won't do as well (1st half of Kentucky, Florida game). Wofford has played us close the last three times we've played them. They run a solid triple option, something we've never done well against, and they burn clock. We were playing to win, it's really all we ever do. This isn't Spurrier of old, we don't run scores up. We take leads, and end the game. As far as the Tennessee game goes, they did exactly the same thing with UGA. When the game came down to the end, the best player in the country made a huge play.
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