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hopefully LHN will continue to be a disaster and UT will give up on it and the Big XII.
The Omaha World-Herald cites sources saying that the Big Ten did 'prior homework' on possible invitations for Oklahoma, Kansas and Vanderbilt.
Big XII has the same grant of rights that the ACC just adopted. I don't see them breaking up annnnyyyytime soon
The B12 will eventually crumble. It is too geographically isolated. It will soon be the only major conference without its own network. And it's far too dependent on one school. The GOR is not ironclad and with each passing year it becomes cheaper and easier for schools to walk away. It's not a stable long-term situation.
If one of the 5 conferences has to break up to get us to 4, the Big XII is by far the most logical choice to do so...it's the only conference that can plausibly contribute members to all 4 of the others. The problem is that it has too many schools that would get shut out of the other power conferences if it were to break up. I think the Big XII has, at most, 5 schools that any other conference would want: Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, and Oklahoma State. And really, given that Oklahoma State's value probably dies when the 84 year old T. Boone Pickens does and that Kansas brings no media market or competitive football team to the table, there are probably only 3 truly valuable schools in that conference. To me, that means that you can expect the Big XII to take any and all possible steps to prevent the attractive schools among them from leaving.
I think it really all depends on Texas. Texas is the pillar holding up the Big XII...if they leave, it all crumbles; if they stay, things will be more or less OK. And from Texas' perspective, why would they leave? They already bring in by far the most money of any college athletic department. They have their own cable network, which they certainly would be allowed to keep in any other conference. They get to play in a geographically condensed conference, so their fans can travel pretty easily to all the away games (except WV). And for recruiting, all their conference rivals have to come into their state and compete with each other over the scraps Texas doesn't want. Texas is really well positioned to be a perpetual top dog in the Big XII. What benefits would joining the B1G, PAC, or SEC bring that would outweigh all the stuff they'd have to give up, plus the ugly and expensive fight they'd have to put up to leave?
Nah, I like the Big XII to hold together. If the B1G wants to go to 16 in the near term, I think our only option would be to poach Vandy and Mizzou from the SEC...and that doesn't seem too realistic. Status quo with conferences for at least a while.
This post was edited by inuyesta 12 months ago
The thing is, the Big 10 knew this, and still spent time investigating.
What do they know that we don't? Weird.
I agree UT is the lynchpin. But I disagree that UT will never leave. They've almost left twice in the last few years alone. UT doesn't care about the B12 or anyone in it other than itself. UT will leave eventially, as soon as it's in its own best interest to do so. It's only a question of when.
UT will leave when it is definitively in their financial interests to do so. With the Longhorn network...I am not sure that is any time soon.
I don't doubt that UT would leave if it were in their interest. I just don't see how it will become in their interest to do so. Two big things have changed since Texas was really looking around a few years back.
One is the Longhorn Network. There's just no way the SEC, B1G, or PAC would let them keep it, not with their own conference networks needing content from what would instantly be one of the marquee schools. So either Texas' share of the BTN/SECN/PACN revenue would have to be greater than what they can expect from Longhorn Network (which I understand doesn't produce a huge amount of revenue just yet, but Texas expects it to before too long), or Texas would have to be getting some other benefit that would outweigh whatever they'd lose in the shift from LHN to BTN/etc. I don't know what those other benefits would be, I don't think they'd go to all the trouble of launching LHN if they didn't think it would be more valuable than a conference network deal, and I really don't think they'd scrap LHN after just a couple of years.
The other thing is the grant of rights. I understand that most people think "its not ironclad" and can probably be gotten out of at a discount with litigation. But you have to keep in mind that that case would cost millions of dollars to litigate, and that's before you even account for the 8-figure settlement Texas would likely ultimately be forced to pay. Now, Maryland doesn't mind paying the millions to fight the ACC over the $50 million exit fee because moving to the B1G is **such** a windfall for them. They'll make that money back very quickly. But Texas is in a completely different situation...they just don't have a huge amount to gain by leaving the Big XII, at this point. The fight is probably just not worth the angst and expense.
Basically, I think if Texas wanted to leave the Big XII, the time to do it was a few years ago when Nebraska, Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Colorado got out, not now. I think something major has to change for them to leave at this point. Not saying that's impossible, but I don't expect it to happen, at least not any time soon.
UT will end up in one of three places ... P12, ACC or independent. Considering the deal the ACC just gave ND, the idea that they wouldn't someday take UT and allow them to keep LHN is silly. Of course they will. Considering the limited options the P12 has at this point, I'm not sure they won't too (and if it comes down to the P12 v. ACC, I believe UT will go West). And UT can always go independent. They can just park their non-football sports in the ACC (just like ND) and be on their merry way. Trust me ... the only reason they stuck with the B12 in the last go-round was they needed about five years to get LHN up and running. Once that happens, they will have no more need for the B12.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson 12 months ago
I'll believe Texas to the ACC when the ink is dry and not a moment before.
The Pac-12 seems an infinitely more likely destination, but I ask again...what advantage does Texas gain by joining the Pac-12 that is worth spending low-mid 8-figures to get out of the Big XII?
The P12 is a much better conference, both academically and athletically, and long-term the P12 will make more money (better markets and their own network). If you were UT, would you rather play USC, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, etc or TTU, Baylor, Iowa State, KSU, OkSt, etc? UT can still play OU (they probably would take them along to the P12), and what exactly would they be leaving behind? And academically ... do we even need to discuss it?
This post was edited by MrWoodson 12 months ago
Will the P12 make more money? Enough more money? The most bullish estimates say the P12 Network plus their Fox and ESPN deals will eventually be worth $30 million per year per school. The Big Ten Network alone already distributes $24 million per year per school, a figure that would only stand to increase as it starts to renegotiate deals in the East Coast markets we're getting into, and would increase even more if we added Texas. Yet that hasn't been enough to lure Texas to the Big Ten, and you know we'd take them in a second.
All the other stuff is peripheral. You don't pay the $30-$40 million it would cost to leave the Big XII just because you want to be associated with better academic schools, or because you'd rather play the Oregon schools than the Oklahoma schools. If Texas cared that much about being in a good academic conference, it would have left the Big XII years and years ago.
Like I said, they'll leave if it makes good financial sense. I don't see an option that makes good financial sense right now. Something has to change.
I'm betting that further B1G expansion will come on the East coast, not the Midwest or South. Maryland and Rutgers were not added because of their sports prowess. They were added because of the TV markets they are in (NY, DC). And I'm pretty sure the next two teams we add will also be in large TV markets. The recent ACC news about making it hard for teams to leave kinda throws a wrench into my theory, but anyway I'm guessing Boston College, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech would make the most sense for the B1G Conference to add.
Nothing so needs reforming as other people's habits. -- Mark Twain
You have your numbers messed up. The current P12 TV deal pays $20 MM per school. P12 Network revenues are on top of that and will grow over time just like BTN. As for the B10, BTN does not kick out $24 MM per school. It currently kicks out $8-9 MM per school and that number is growing at about 10% per year. Altogether our ABC/ESPN, CBS, FOX and BTN revenues are in the $21-22 MM range. Throw in bowl and NCAA revenues and you probably get to $24-26 MM. But the B10 is the last conference to renew our third party TV deals. In 2016, once the deals are renewed, we will almost certainly be pulling in close to $40 million even before bowl and NCAA revenues (FWIW so will the SEC). The B12 cannot keep pace with that ... and UT is not going to stand by while every other major program catches up to them or passes them by just so they can play Baylor every year.
I still would not be surprised if we go after Mizzou again.
The only way OU ends up in the B1G is if OSU is included. The two schools have to play in the same conference that is the state law. Since the wealthiest person in the state possibly the country is a prominent donor to his Alma mater, OkieState I don't see anyway that Boomer Sooner ends up in the conference.
A playoff system excluding the big 12 would force their hand.I agree they would probably go independent.Unless they can't get a deal done with the playoff committee.Witch in that case they join the ACC and force them to change the name to the TEXAS NOTRE DAME CONFERENCE LLC.
This post was edited by UM97 12 months ago
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