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Bubble watch

  • Why is it that the nations best conference is almost certain to not have the most teams in the tourney? Also, Lunardi's latest bubble watch had TN in and UK, Bama and Ole Miss on the next four out. Not that those teams will all or any of those schools will make it but why is there six SEC schools in contention? That conference is horrid. Where is a team like Iowa at in the discussion? They could end up 9-9 in the best conference and aren't getting a sniff. There are plenty of other teams not getting a sniff too but I don't understand our conf bring shorted but a scrub one like the SEC getting rewarded. Thoughts?

    Jordan11

  • If Iowa gets to 9-9 in the B1G they'll make it in. I wouldn't worry about those SEC teams getting in, the SEC won't get more than 4 and it shouldn't.

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    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • Well, you can't just use the argument that because Iowa is in the best conference, they deserve more of a look. You really need to comb over Iowa's resume, and you'll understand why they aren't in the discussion.

    76 RPI, 97 strength of schedule. Have not beat a single team of note. Two road wins, over Northwestern and Penn State. They have missed multiple opportunities to build their resume.

    Getting to 9-9 won't assure them of much because the game is home against Nebraska. They need to make a deep run in the BTT.

    This post was edited by Lavington on 3/6/2013 at 4:07 PM

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    Lavington

  • TAMUWolverine said...

    If Iowa gets to 9-9 in the B1G they'll make it in. I wouldn't worry about those SEC teams getting in, the SEC won't get more than 4 and it shouldn't.

    They should only maybe get 2. Three is stretching it and four would be crazy IMO. I just can't believe Iowa isn't even in the discussion so far. Why does the Bigeast always get 8 to 10 teams in? I'm ok with the bigten getting six in if some of these other conferences do too. I just wonder if these projections are ESPN/SEC homerism.

    Jordan11

  • Lavington said...

    Well, you can't just use the argument that because Iowa is in the best conference, they deserve more of a look. You really need to comb over Iowa's resume, and you'll understand why they aren't in the discussion.

    76 RPI, 97 strength of schedule. Have not beat a single team of note. Two road wins, over Northwestern and Penn State. They have missed multiple opportunities to build their resume.

    Getting to 9-9 won't assure them of much because the game is home against Nebraska. They need to make a deep run in the BTT.

    It's been talked about that if they get to 9-9 and win a game or 2 in the B1G tourney then they will probably be in. Also, people have to remember that the SEC has 14 teams. They'll most likely get 4 teams in while the B1G gets 7 or 8. That's 4 out of 14(29%) for the SEC and 8 out of 12(67%) for the B1G.

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    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • Jordan11 said...

    They should only maybe get 2. Three is stretching it and four would be crazy IMO. I just can't believe Iowa isn't even in the discussion so far. Why does the Bigeast always get 8 to 10 teams in? I'm ok with the bigten getting six in if some of these other conferences do too. I just wonder if these projections are ESPN/SEC homerism.

    The Big East also had 16 teams. The SEC has two more teams than the B1G and will likely get 4 less bids, it's not really that crazy.

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    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • Lavington said...

    Well, you can't just use the argument that because Iowa is in the best conference, they deserve more of a look. You really need to comb over Iowa's resume, and you'll understand why they aren't in the discussion.

    76 RPI, 97 strength of schedule. Have not beat a single team of note. Two road wins, over Northwestern and Penn State. They have missed multiple opportunities to build their resume.

    Getting to 9-9 won't assure them of much because the game is home against Nebraska. They need to make a deep run in the BTT.

    Well that should factor in there quite a bit. They are playing good competition night in and night out. They have beaten several potential tourney teams in Iowa St, Wisky, Minny and Illinois. I know their rpi stinks but they should be atleast in the discussion. They've done well at home. I'm not arguing just for Iowa but also the conference as a whole and also asking why the SEC teams are right on the fringe of getting in?

    Jordan11

  • TAMUWolverine said...

    It's been talked about that if they get to 9-9 and win a game or 2 in the B1G tourney then they will probably be in. Also, people have to remember that the SEC has 14 teams. They'll most likely get 4 teams in while the B1G gets 7 or 8. That's 4 out of 14(29%) for the SEC and 8 out of 12(67%) for the B1G.

    If we get 8 I will be ecstatic. If they get four its a travesty. There are other conferences that have better teams than the fourth SEC team. I was just surprised that they have six in the discussion. That conference stinks this year.

    Jordan11

  • Well, from what I've seen from bracketology (yes, I get bored often lol!), they aren't even in the next four out. CBS bubble watch says they are likely out.

    At this point in time, they just have not done enough. Most bubble teams have one or two wins that they can hang their hat on. Iowa doesn't. They need to knock off a couple of ranked teams in the BTT. They have a HUGE hill to climb. I'll wager my alarm clock that Iowa doesn't get in.

    I'll take getting 7/12 teams from the conference (Indiana, Michigan, MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota).

    This post was edited by Lavington on 3/6/2013 at 4:22 PM

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    Lavington

  • Jordan11 said...

    Well that should factor in there quite a bit. They are playing good competition night in and night out. They have beaten several potential tourney teams in Iowa St, Wisky, Minny and Illinois. I know their rpi stinks but they should be atleast in the discussion. They've done well at home. I'm not arguing just for Iowa but also the conference as a whole and also asking why the SEC teams are right on the fringe of getting in?

    Well if Minny and Illinois gets in that means the Big would have 7 of 12 teams in the tourney. I don't see the Big Ten being slighted at all.

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    WillyWolverine

  • Jordan11 said...

    If we get 8 I will be ecstatic. If they get four its a travesty. There are other conferences that have better teams than the fourth SEC team. I was just surprised that they have six in the discussion. That conference stinks this year.

    They have 6 in the discussion because it will be the top 2 and then the next 4 teams are battling for the last two spots. It's unfortunate but that's what the tourney has become, 68 teams dilutes the field.

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    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • TAMUWolverine said...

    The Big East also had 16 teams. The SEC has two more teams than the B1G and will likely get 4 less bids, it's not really that crazy.

    I haven't seen Iowa in the discussion yet but if you've heard it then that's great. I'm trying not to look at percentages of teams out of a conference getting in but rather the conference itself and their body of work. I may be wrong but I like to see others opinions and talk about it.

    Jordan11

  • The conference will be very well-represented. Getting seven is nothing to sneeze at. I just don't think Iowa has done nearly enough, and the proof is in the pudding.

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    Lavington

  • TAMUWolverine said...

    They have 6 in the discussion because it will be the top 2 and then the next 4 teams are battling for the last two spots. It's unfortunate but that's what the tourney has become, 68 teams dilutes the field.

    Good point on dilution

    Jordan11

  • WillyWolverine said...

    Well if Minny and Illinois gets in that means the Big would have 7 of 12 teams in the tourney. I don't see the Big Ten being slighted at all.

    I'm happy for seven teams for the most part but there's a part of me that says no way is the SEC a four bid conference. Also the Bigeast will get 8 or 9. Guess my whole point was that Iowas conference record has to be better than those SEC teams and some other fringe teams. Just my thoughts

    Jordan11

  • Lavington said...

    The conference will be very well-represented. Getting seven is nothing to sneeze at. I just don't think Iowa has done nearly enough, and the proof is in the pudding.

    You may be right. Argue for UK (minus Noel), Alabama and Ole Miss being considered and TN currently in the field. That's what bracketology looks like as of now. What other teams are there. I'm guilty of not watching the bubble as much this year

    Jordan11

  • Unfortunately for other bubble teams, Kentucky is going to be tough to keep out. Despite what the committee may say, there is bias in the selection process. And it's going to be darn hard to keep out the defending national champion.

    Alabama does this crap every year. They have a gaudy conference record, but when you really look at their record, they are very unimpressive (is that a word?) Tennessee has some good wins, including a win over an elite team (Florida). The bubble is VERY soft this year, which ultimately does help Iowa's case... However, they need to build that resume in a hurry. They are going to need to make a lot of noise in the BTT.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Lavington on 3/6/2013 at 4:39 PM

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    Lavington

  • It's very hard to predict the last 3-4 teams in the field and just because Lunardi has Tennessee in and Iowa out doesn't make it so. IMO if Iowa would have beaten Nebraska in their first meeting (and they should have), they would be right in the discussion. That loss set them back in some people's eyes. Nonetheless, if they beat them in the return game and get to 20 wins and 9-9 in the B10, they will be back in the discussion. And then it will depend on their performance in the BTT. Right now, all of their best wins are home games ... Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. Two wins in the BTT would give them a signature win on a neutral court. Will one win in the BTT get them over the hump? Idk because their first game will be against a B10 bottom dweller. It will be close and will depend on what happens in other conference tournaments. Again, I think Iowa is just as good as any of the bubble teams Joe Lunardi has been throwing around lately, but it's not enough to be just as good. They need something to move them to the top of the bubble list and I'm just not sure they have it right now.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 3/6/2013 at 4:42 PM

    MrWoodson

  • Right. They are in desperate need of some mojo. Hopefully their big win doesn't come at the expense of Michigan :)

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    Lavington

  • Iowa is getting crushed in RPI and the eye test because they've had a ton of close loses. They've lost games to IU, MSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue by 4 points or less. Must be a heartbreaking year to be an Iowa bball fan - kinda like every year as a Northwestern fan. If they win 1 or 2 of those close games, they're a tourney lock.

    Kenpom has them as the 31st best team. Higher than tourney bound teams like Kansas State, NC State, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA.

    UMPat

  • Lavington said...

    Unfortunately for other bubble teams, Kentucky is going to be tough to keep out. Despite what the committee may say, there is bias in the selection process. And it's going to be darn hard to keep out the defending national champion.

    Alabama does this crap every year. They have a gaudy conference record, but when you really look at their record, they are very unimpressive (is that a word?) Tennessee has some good wins, including a win over an elite team (Florida). The bubble is VERY soft this year, which ultimately does help Iowa's case... However, they need to build that resume in a hurry. They are going to need to make a lot of noise in the BTT.

    I agree on UK even without Noel. They will give Cal the benefit of the doubt on how he can do in a one and done format. Plus it keeps them in the spotlight for next year when they will be good again.

    Jordan11

  • UMPat said...

    Iowa is getting crushed in RPI and the eye test because they've had a ton of close loses. They've lost games to IU, MSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue by 4 points or less. Must be a heartbreaking year to be an Iowa bball fan - kinda like every year as a Northwestern fan. If they win 1 or 2 of those close games, they're a tourney lock.

    Kenpom has them as the 31st best team. Higher than tourney bound teams like Kansas State, NC State, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA.

    I know. I think they are a tourney team. They haven't had the signature wins but most bubble teams don't. They have had close losses that may be their undoing

    Jordan11

  • Jordan11 said...

    I'm happy for seven teams for the most part but there's a part of me that says no way is the SEC a four bid conference. Also the Bigeast will get 8 or 9. Guess my whole point was that Iowas conference record has to be better than those SEC teams and some other fringe teams. Just my thoughts

    The SEC is a two bid league possibly three if Kentucky can win a couple in the conference tournament. If Tenn and UK get in hopefully we get them in our side of the bracket, much rather play and SEC team then Iowa.

    This post was edited by Amazinglyblue78 on 3/6/2013 at 5:20 PM

    Amazinglyblue78

  • MrWoodson said...

    It's very hard to predict the last 3-4 teams in the field and just because Lunardi has Tennessee in and Iowa out doesn't make it so. IMO if Iowa would have beaten Nebraska in their first meeting (and they should have), they would be right in the discussion. That loss set them back in some people's eyes. Nonetheless, if they beat them in the return game and get to 20 wins and 9-9 in the B10, they will be back in the discussion. And then it will depend on their performance in the BTT. Right now, all of their best wins are home games ... Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. Two wins in the BTT would give them a signature win on a neutral court. Will one win in the BTT get them over the hump? Idk because their first game will be against a B10 bottom dweller. It will be close and will depend on what happens in other conference tournaments. Again, I think Iowa is just as good as any of the bubble teams Joe Lunardi has been throwing around lately, but it's not enough to be just as good. They need something to move them to the top of the bubble list and I'm just not sure they have it right now.

    I'm not trying to be a Lunardi knows all guy but I just haven't heard or saw anything on Iowa. I hope they make it in over some scrub team from a scrub conference. 9-9 in our conference is good. You heard Beilein say 5-4 on the road is the goal and win at home. That's tough for anyone especially one that's not elite

    Jordan11

  • Amazinglyblue78 said...

    The SEC is a two bid league possibly three if Kentucky can win a couple in the conference tournament. If Tenn and UK get in hopefully we get them in our side of the bracket, much rather play and SEC team then Iowa.

    I hope you are right. Unfortunately I see them as a three possibly four bid league. They don't deserve it and yes I'd like UM to play any SEC team early on except Florida

    Jordan11