Wolverine247 Board

Re-circulate this thread in about a month when we actually give a fukc then....thanks

Very well.

Actual B1G bowl matchups, with the Massey projections

Massey projections for B1G bowls

Rose:
STAN: 24, 70% to win
WISC: 17

Capital One:
UGA: 38, 77%
NEB: 27

Outback:
SCAR: 28, 73%
MICH: 21

Gator:
NW: 28, 53%
MSST: 27

Heart of Dallas
OKST: 44, 90%
PUR: 27

Buffalo Wild Wings
TCU: 13, 60%
MSU: 10

Meineke Car Care
TTU: 35, 83%
MINN: 23

So, the Big Ten is actually in a little bit worse shape than the projections I made three weeks ago. Under the projections in the OP, the average B1G bowl team had a 33.57% chance of winning its game; this has slipped to 28.57%. Similarly, the average B1G bowl team has slipped from a 6.42-point underdog to an 8-point underdog. As before, only one Big Ten team is favored to win its bowl game.

Obviously this doesn't mean the conference will necessarily go 1-6 this season. Still, binomial probability says that the Big Ten going 0-7 (9.49% chance) is almost equally likely as it having a winning record (10.83% chance). The silver lining here is that the two most lopsided games are among the lowest profile of the games, while 3 of the conference's 4 best shots are on New Years Day...with any luck, the B1G can avoid being shut out on New Years Day the way it was in the 2010-11 season.

Maybe this seems like it doesn't really matter, but perception is everything in CFB. If Ohio State were eligible for the postseason this year, they'd still not make the NCG - at #3 in the AP poll, the gap between them and #2 Alabama is wider than the gap between them and #6, twice-beaten Georgia. This should be really concerning to us, both in terms of any ambitions we might have about next year (when, with all of our difficult games at home, we could be in competition for a title game shot if everything breaks right. Or, alternatively and more realistically, if we fall short of the B1G title again, this would be relevant for our BCS at-large candidacy) and any ambitions we have of breaking into the playoff in 2014 and beyond.

I guess this post doesn't really have a purpose, except as a starting point for discussion about the bowl lineup. Definitely root for the conference to hit that 10.8% shot at a winning record though; 4-3 with a couple New Years Day wins over the SEC would be huge for us moving forward.

Call me an optimist or some may say crazy but i think SCe is a game we win. Don't think it is me being a homer either. Sure SCe has a good DL but if we can give DG some extra time I think we will be fine. Also we have to play DRob as a RB. Lots of things to breakdown but if I had to pick a team to square off against in the SEC, SCe would be the one.

Massey throws like a girl.

Basically, the Big 10 will do as well as it always does...which in other words, is not well.

My point is that unless the B1G is perceived as strong, or at least decent, winning it isn't going to mean much on the national stage. If our only ambition is to get to the Rose Bowl, then, you know, fine. But this is Michigan fergodssakes, and if we can't get into the BCS NCG or even a 4 team playoff at 12-1, that's a major problem. Look at Clemson, which reached its peak at #11 with a 10-1 record entirely because they play in the ACC, which is perceived as garbage. Or Florida State, #10 with a 10-1 record. Both of them ranked behind 3 2-loss teams, both of them considered completely out of the national title race as soon as they lost their first game, Tajh Boyd not getting a serious look at the Heisman despite putting up numbers as good or better than any other QB in the country. With the way perception of the B1G is going, we could be in that boat next.

Yeah, I think it is possible we are not giving USCe enough credit. I don't deny that.

That said, almost all of us think SC should be favored...so we are giving you solid respect.

This.

But I have no idea how gamecock4life99 is saying "Florida might as well not even have an offense" when they beat you 44-11. I don't care how much they benefited from turnovers on your side of the field, you don't get to lose to someone by 33 and then talk sh!t about them.

He was, Lattimore went down against Tennessee two weeks after the Georgia game.

Ok perfect...then you can easily throw away their performance against Georgia, as we can against Nebraska

Not to take anything away from Latty, because all of us Carolina fans love him, but over the last three years we are 8-1 without him with 2 wins over Clemson, a 30-13 win over Nebraska last year, and a win vs Florida. He makes our offense extremely better, but we have serviceable backups at RB one of which is extremely experienced. with 1500 career rushing yards. We lost two games which were in back to back weeks @Florida and @LSU. We played UGA the week prior with no bye weeks in the mix at all. By the time the second half of the Florida came around we were completely beat. No team in the country could go 3-0 in that stretch. Our defense is going to be the best defense you've seen since Alabama. We have 7 seniors who start, and many more who play on defense, most of which are fringe draft picks who are going to work their tail off to improve their stock. I've watched every SEC play all season, and maybe I'm a homer, but I'd rank the SEC 1. Bama 2. LSU 3. FLA 4. SC 5. TAMU 6. UGA

Texas A&M gets a ton of love, but they had the exact same two losses as we did, yet they were at home.

Good luck in the game. An early guess from me is USC- 31 Mich- 17. Let me hear something about your team since I can truthfully say I don't know a whole lot other than Denard. I think the only Michigan game I watched was Bama. I'm sure a lot has changed since then.

You're not. They win championships, you don't.